Uptrend · Range · Downtrend

精准标识趋势与震荡State Identification: Trends and Ranges

每一天只有三种状态：上升 / 震荡 / 下降。这页做两件事——Every day is in one of three states: Uptrend / Range / Downtrend. This page does two things — 先把每一天的真实状态标出来（图上的绿 / 灰 / 红色带），first it marks each day's true state (the green / grey / red bands on the chart), 再问一个不一样的问题：只用当天为止的信息，能认出多少？then it asks a separate question: using only information available up to that day, how much of that state can be recovered?

7 个标的结论一致：All 7 tickers point the same way: 趋势成型之后可以识别，转折发生时不能。a trend is identifiable once it has formed, and not while it is turning. 全段BSS 7/7为正，其中7/7的90%区间排除0；转折邻域7/7为负，没有正值例外。Overall BSS is positive for 7/7, with 7/7 90% intervals excluding zero; turn-neighbourhood BSS is negative for 7/7, and there is no positive exception.

1色带：状态标注Bands: the state labels

由完整价格路径回溯确定：判定某日为顶或底时，使用了该日之后的价格。Assigned retrospectively from the complete price path: calling a day a top or a bottom uses prices that come after it. 因此色带对转折点的定位是准确的，但包含当时尚不可得的信息，不能作为实时信号。The bands therefore place turning points accurately, but they carry look-ahead information and are not a real-time signal.

2概率：因果模型输出Probabilities: causal model output

卡片右上角的 P(上) / P(震) / P(下) 仅使用截至当日的信息。The P(Up) / P(Range) / P(Down) figures at the top right of each card use only information available through that day. 满足严格前缀因果：截断当日之后的数据重跑，当日输出逐位不变（代码中有机械检验）。They satisfy strict prefix causality: truncate everything after that day and rerun, and the day's output is bit-identical (mechanically tested in the code).

3图右端留空The right edge is left blank

最后一段的方向须待下一个转折点出现才能确定，故右端无色带。The direction of the final segment is only fixed once the next turning point arrives, so no band is drawn there. 该区间的状态标注为删失，不参与任何评分。Labels over that stretch are censored (not yet finalized) and enter no scoring.

标注颗粒度：平均每段约 4–5 个月Label granularity: about 4–5 months per segment 数据源 yfinance 日线 · 前复权 · 含 7×24 标的Source yfinance daily · back-adjusted · includes a 7×24 ticker 数据截至 2026-08-14 · 每个交易日重算Data through 2026-08-14 · recomputed every trading day 生成于 2026-08-14Generated 2026-08-14

§1　标的与历史标注§1 Tickers and historical labels

默认显示近两年，可切换全历史。Last 2 years by default; toggle to full history above each chart. 上升Uptrend 震荡Range 下降Downtrend 竖线为转折点，其中加粗并带圆点者，邻近 ±10 个交易日内出现了幅度居前 25% 的单日波动。每张卡片下方可展开完整的转折点清单。Vertical lines mark turning points; those drawn bold with a dot had a top-quartile single-day move within ±10 trading days. The full list of turning points expands beneath each card.

标普500 ETFS&P 500 ETFSPY

上升Uptrend P(上) 85% · P(震) 12% · P(下) 3%P(Up) 85% · P(Range) 12% · P(Down) 3% 标注定稿至 2026-08-13，其后 1 个交易日方向尚未定稿Labels finalized through 2026-08-13; the 1 session since has no class yet

近两年窗口内 4 个转折 · 加粗+圆点 = 附近有大幅单日波动4 turning points in the last 2 years · bold line + dot = a large single-day move nearby

上升Uptrend 标注 70% — labeled 70% · 模型 81% · model 81%震荡Range 标注 14% — labeled 14% · 模型 8% · model 8%下降Downtrend 标注 16% — labeled 16% · 模型 11% · model 11%

1993-01-29 → 2026-08-14 · 93 个转折点 · 2.77 段/年93 turning points · 2.77 segments/yr PT趋势腿 ≥10.2% · 候选腿 ≥26 根 · 枢轴间隔 ≥9 根PT trend leg ≥10.2% · candidate ≥26 bars · pivot gap ≥9 bars BSS 0.187 转折邻域 -0.049Turning-point window -0.049

全部 93 个转折点All 93 turning points

转折日Date	切换Switch	接下来这一段Next segment	附近最大单日Largest nearby day	当时波动Volatility then	VIX
2026-03-30	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+23.4% 历时 136 天136 days	+2.9% 2026-03-31	15% (58% 分位)(58% percentile)	31 (92% 分位)(92% percentile)
2026-01-27	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-8.9% 历时 62 天62 days	-2.0% 2026-01-20	11% (34% 分位)(34% percentile)	16 (43% 分位)(43% percentile)
2025-04-08	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+41.3% 历时 294 天294 days	+10.5% 2025-04-09	32% (95% 分位)(95% percentile)	52 (99% 分位)(99% percentile)
2025-02-19	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-18.8% 历时 48 天48 days	-1.8% 2025-03-03	10% (30% 分位)(30% percentile)	15 (36% 分位)(36% percentile)
2024-08-05	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+19.2% 历时 198 天198 days	-2.9% 2024-08-05	19% (75% 分位)(75% percentile)	39 (97% 分位)(97% percentile)
2024-07-16	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-8.4% 历时 20 天20 days	-2.3% 2024-07-24	7% (9% 分位)(9% percentile)	13 (21% 分位)(21% percentile)
2023-10-27	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+39.0% 历时 263 天263 days	+1.9% 2023-11-02	14% (50% 分位)(50% percentile)	21 (67% 分位)(67% percentile)
2023-07-31	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-10.0% 历时 88 天88 days	-1.4% 2023-08-02	8% (13% 分位)(13% percentile)	14 (25% 分位)(25% percentile)
2023-03-13	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+19.7% 历时 140 天140 days	-1.8% 2023-03-09	16% (61% 分位)(61% percentile)	27 (85% 分位)(85% percentile)
2023-02-02	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-7.5% 历时 39 天39 days	+1.9% 2023-01-20	17% (65% 分位)(65% percentile)	19 (54% 分位)(54% percentile)
2022-10-12	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+17.4% 历时 113 天113 days	+3.1% 2022-10-04	24% (87% 分位)(87% percentile)	34 (95% 分位)(95% percentile)
2022-08-16	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-16.7% 历时 57 天57 days	-3.4% 2022-08-26	16% (64% 分位)(64% percentile)	20 (59% 分位)(59% percentile)
2022-06-16	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+17.7% 历时 61 天61 days	-3.8% 2022-06-13	29% (93% 分位)(93% percentile)	33 (94% 分位)(94% percentile)
2022-01-03	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-23.0% 历时 164 天164 days	-1.9% 2022-01-05	16% (63% 分位)(63% percentile)	17 (45% 分位)(45% percentile)
2021-10-04	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+11.8% 历时 91 天91 days	-2.0% 2021-09-28	14% (56% 分位)(56% percentile)	23 (75% 分位)(75% percentile)
2021-09-02	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-5.1% 历时 32 天32 days	-1.0% 2021-09-17	8% (13% 分位)(13% percentile)	16 (44% 分位)(44% percentile)
2020-03-23	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+107.2% 历时 528 天528 days	-10.9% 2020-03-16	83% (100% 分位)(100% percentile)	62 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
2020-02-19	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-33.7% 历时 33 天33 days	-4.5% 2020-02-27	13% (51% 分位)(51% percentile)	14 (33% 分位)(33% percentile)
2018-12-24	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+47.1% 历时 422 天422 days	+5.1% 2018-12-26	24% (88% 分位)(88% percentile)	36 (96% 分位)(96% percentile)
2018-09-20	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-19.3% 历时 95 天95 days	+0.8% 2018-09-20	6% (5% 分位)(5% percentile)	12 (10% 分位)(10% percentile)
2018-02-08	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+14.9% 历时 224 天224 days	-4.2% 2018-02-05	25% (88% 分位)(88% percentile)	33 (95% 分位)(95% percentile)
2018-01-26	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-10.1% 历时 13 天13 days	-4.2% 2018-02-05	7% (8% 分位)(8% percentile)	11 (5% 分位)(5% percentile)
2017-08-18	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+19.3% 历时 161 天161 days	-1.6% 2017-08-17	9% (18% 分位)(18% percentile)	14 (30% 分位)(30% percentile)
2017-03-01	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	+2.2% 历时 170 天170 days	+1.4% 2017-03-01	6% (3% 分位)(3% percentile)	13 (15% 分位)(15% percentile)
2016-11-04	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+15.7% 历时 117 天117 days	+2.2% 2016-11-07	7% (6% 分位)(6% percentile)	23 (72% 分位)(72% percentile)
2016-08-15	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-4.3% 历时 81 天81 days	+0.8% 2016-08-05	5% (0% 分位)(0% percentile)	12 (8% 分位)(8% percentile)
2016-02-11	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+21.1% 历时 186 天186 days	+2.4% 2016-01-29	22% (81% 分位)(81% percentile)	28 (88% 分位)(88% percentile)
2015-11-03	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-12.8% 历时 100 天100 days	+1.7% 2015-10-22	12% (36% 分位)(36% percentile)	15 (30% 分位)(30% percentile)
2015-08-25	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+13.3% 历时 70 天70 days	-4.2% 2015-08-24	21% (79% 分位)(79% percentile)	36 (95% 分位)(95% percentile)
2015-07-20	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-11.9% 历时 36 天36 days	-1.7% 2015-07-08	13% (46% 分位)(46% percentile)	12 (12% 分位)(12% percentile)
2014-10-16	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+15.8% 历时 277 天277 days	-2.0% 2014-10-09	16% (60% 分位)(60% percentile)	25 (80% 分位)(80% percentile)
2014-09-18	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-7.3% 历时 28 天28 days	-1.6% 2014-09-25	6% (1% 分位)(1% percentile)	12 (10% 分位)(10% percentile)
2014-02-03	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+16.9% 历时 227 天227 days	-2.3% 2014-02-03	15% (53% 分位)(53% percentile)	21 (64% 分位)(64% percentile)
2013-12-31	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-5.7% 历时 34 天34 days	+1.7% 2013-12-18	10% (24% 分位)(24% percentile)	14 (22% 分位)(22% percentile)
2012-11-15	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+39.8% 历时 411 天411 days	-2.3% 2012-11-07	14% (45% 分位)(45% percentile)	18 (43% 分位)(43% percentile)
2012-09-14	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-7.3% 历时 62 天62 days	+2.0% 2012-09-06	11% (27% 分位)(27% percentile)	15 (25% 分位)(25% percentile)
2012-06-04	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+15.5% 历时 102 天102 days	-2.5% 2012-06-01	15% (50% 分位)(50% percentile)	26 (81% 分位)(81% percentile)
2012-04-02	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-9.7% 历时 63 天63 days	-1.7% 2012-04-10	12% (35% 分位)(35% percentile)	16 (31% 分位)(31% percentile)
2011-10-03	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+30.4% 历时 182 天182 days	+3.3% 2011-10-10	30% (92% 分位)(92% percentile)	45 (98% 分位)(98% percentile)
2011-04-29	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-18.6% 历时 157 天157 days	+1.4% 2011-04-20	9% (16% 分位)(16% percentile)	15 (28% 分位)(28% percentile)
2011-02-18	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	+1.9% 历时 70 天70 days	-2.0% 2011-02-22	10% (24% 分位)(24% percentile)	16 (37% 分位)(37% percentile)
2010-07-02	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+33.0% 历时 231 天231 days	-3.1% 2010-06-29	21% (76% 分位)(76% percentile)	30 (89% 分位)(89% percentile)
2010-04-23	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-15.7% 历时 70 天70 days	-3.3% 2010-05-06	10% (23% 分位)(23% percentile)	17 (39% 分位)(39% percentile)
2010-02-08	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+15.5% 历时 74 天74 days	-3.1% 2010-02-04	20% (71% 分位)(71% percentile)	27 (83% 分位)(83% percentile)
2010-01-19	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-8.0% 历时 20 天20 days	-2.2% 2010-01-22	11% (31% 分位)(31% percentile)	18 (43% 分位)(43% percentile)
2009-03-09	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+72.8% 历时 316 天316 days	+7.2% 2009-03-23	36% (96% 分位)(96% percentile)	50 (99% 分位)(99% percentile)
2009-01-06	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-27.1% 历时 62 天62 days	-5.3% 2009-01-20	30% (93% 分位)(93% percentile)	39 (97% 分位)(97% percentile)
2008-11-20	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+24.9% 历时 47 天47 days	-8.9% 2008-12-01	76% (99% 分位)(99% percentile)	81 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
2008-05-19	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-46.7% 历时 185 天185 days	-1.8% 2008-05-07	13% (47% 分位)(47% percentile)	17 (46% 分位)(46% percentile)
2008-03-10	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+12.3% 历时 70 天70 days	+4.2% 2008-03-18	16% (62% 分位)(62% percentile)	29 (92% 分位)(92% percentile)
2007-10-09	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-17.8% 历时 153 天153 days	-2.6% 2007-10-19	13% (49% 分位)(49% percentile)	16 (43% 分位)(43% percentile)
2007-03-05	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+15.4% 历时 218 天218 days	-3.9% 2007-02-27	16% (66% 分位)(66% percentile)	20 (58% 分位)(58% percentile)
2007-02-20	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-6.0% 历时 13 天13 days	-3.9% 2007-02-27	8% (13% 分位)(13% percentile)	10 (1% 分位)(1% percentile)
2006-06-13	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+20.9% 历时 252 天252 days	+2.1% 2006-06-15	15% (57% 分位)(57% percentile)	24 (77% 分位)(77% percentile)
2006-01-09	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-4.5% 历时 155 天155 days	-1.8% 2006-01-20	9% (20% 分位)(20% percentile)	11 (2% 分位)(2% percentile)
2005-10-13	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+10.2% 历时 88 天88 days	-1.8% 2005-10-20	10% (21% 分位)(21% percentile)	16 (39% 分位)(39% percentile)
2005-03-07	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-3.2% 历时 220 天220 days	-1.5% 2005-02-22	11% (26% 分位)(26% percentile)	12 (11% 分位)(11% percentile)
2004-08-06	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+16.3% 历时 213 天213 days	-1.6% 2004-08-05	13% (40% 分位)(40% percentile)	19 (47% 分位)(47% percentile)
2004-03-05	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-7.5% 历时 154 天154 days	-1.7% 2004-03-10	9% (13% 分位)(13% percentile)	14 (23% 分位)(23% percentile)
2003-08-05	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+21.7% 历时 213 天213 days	-2.1% 2003-08-05	15% (46% 分位)(46% percentile)	23 (65% 分位)(65% percentile)
2003-06-17	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-4.8% 历时 49 天49 days	+2.1% 2003-06-16	14% (40% 分位)(40% percentile)	20 (47% 分位)(47% percentile)
2003-03-11	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+26.8% 历时 98 天98 days	+3.5% 2003-03-13	21% (73% 分位)(73% percentile)	34 (95% 分位)(95% percentile)
2002-11-27	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-14.2% 历时 104 天104 days	-2.7% 2002-12-09	24% (84% 分位)(84% percentile)	27 (85% 分位)(85% percentile)
2002-10-09	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+20.7% 历时 49 天49 days	+4.8% 2002-10-15	33% (96% 分位)(96% percentile)	42 (99% 分位)(99% percentile)
2002-03-19	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-33.0% 历时 204 天204 days	-1.9% 2002-03-20	17% (60% 分位)(60% percentile)	18 (43% 分位)(43% percentile)
2001-09-21	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+21.5% 历时 179 天179 days	-5.2% 2001-09-17	28% (93% 分位)(93% percentile)	43 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
2001-05-21	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-25.6% 历时 123 天123 days	+2.4% 2001-05-16	15% (54% 分位)(54% percentile)	21 (60% 分位)(60% percentile)
2001-04-03	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+19.3% 历时 48 天48 days	+4.0% 2001-04-18	34% (97% 分位)(97% percentile)	35 (98% 分位)(98% percentile)
2001-02-01	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-19.8% 历时 61 天61 days	-2.3% 2001-02-02	17% (64% 分位)(64% percentile)	22 (67% 分位)(67% percentile)
2000-12-20	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+9.3% 历时 43 天43 days	+4.8% 2001-01-03	29% (95% 分位)(95% percentile)	32 (97% 分位)(97% percentile)
2000-09-01	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-16.8% 历时 110 天110 days	-2.2% 2000-09-15	10% (31% 分位)(31% percentile)	18 (49% 分位)(49% percentile)
2000-04-14	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+12.4% 历时 140 天140 days	-5.7% 2000-04-14	28% (95% 分位)(95% percentile)	33 (98% 分位)(98% percentile)
2000-03-24	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-11.4% 历时 21 天21 days	+4.7% 2000-03-16	26% (95% 分位)(95% percentile)	23 (80% 分位)(80% percentile)
2000-02-25	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+15.5% 历时 28 天28 days	+2.9% 2000-03-09	24% (93% 分位)(93% percentile)	25 (87% 分位)(87% percentile)
2000-01-19	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-9.3% 历时 37 天37 days	+5.8% 2000-01-07	29% (96% 分位)(96% percentile)	22 (73% 分位)(73% percentile)
1999-10-15	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+18.0% 历时 96 天96 days	+3.4% 1999-10-28	22% (90% 分位)(90% percentile)	29 (94% 分位)(94% percentile)
1999-07-16	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-11.7% 历时 91 天91 days	-2.1% 1999-07-20	11% (39% 分位)(39% percentile)	17 (57% 分位)(57% percentile)
1999-05-27	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+10.6% 历时 50 天50 days	-2.6% 1999-05-14	18% (79% 分位)(79% percentile)	28 (92% 分位)(92% percentile)
1999-05-13	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-6.4% 历时 14 天14 days	-2.6% 1999-05-14	18% (79% 分位)(79% percentile)	25 (88% 分位)(88% percentile)
1998-08-31	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+44.4% 历时 255 天255 days	-7.1% 1998-08-31	37% (99% 分位)(99% percentile)	44 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
1998-07-20	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-19.0% 历时 42 天42 days	-2.1% 1998-07-31	10% (36% 分位)(36% percentile)	17 (66% 分位)(66% percentile)
1998-06-15	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+10.6% 历时 35 天35 days	-2.6% 1998-06-15	19% (91% 分位)(91% percentile)	26 (97% 分位)(97% percentile)
1998-04-22	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-4.9% 历时 54 天54 days	-1.9% 1998-04-27	11% (47% 分位)(47% percentile)	19 (79% 分位)(79% percentile)
1998-01-09	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+22.9% 历时 103 天103 days	-3.5% 1998-01-09	20% (94% 分位)(94% percentile)	29 (98% 分位)(98% percentile)
1997-12-05	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-6.3% 历时 35 天35 days	+2.6% 1997-12-01	19% (91% 分位)(91% percentile)	23 (95% 分位)(95% percentile)
1997-04-11	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+35.9% 历时 238 天238 days	-3.2% 1997-04-11	20% (100% 分位)(100% percentile)	20 (95% 分位)(95% percentile)
1997-02-18	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-10.0% 历时 52 天52 days	-1.9% 1997-02-05	16% (95% 分位)(95% percentile)	20 (97% 分位)(97% percentile)
1996-07-15	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+32.0% 历时 218 天218 days	-3.0% 1996-07-15	17% (98% 分位)(98% percentile)	20 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
1996-02-12	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-4.6% 历时 154 天154 days	+1.6% 1996-02-22	8% (33% 分位)(33% percentile)	15 (85% 分位)(85% percentile)
1995-08-11	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+20.6% 历时 185 天185 days	+0.9% 1995-08-14	8% (37% 分位)(37% percentile)	13 (56% 分位)(56% percentile)
1995-07-27	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-1.8% 历时 15 天15 days	-1.1% 1995-07-19	10% (58% 分位)(58% percentile)	13 (62% 分位)(62% percentile)
1994-12-08	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+28.7% 历时 231 天231 days	+1.1% 1994-12-21	12% (81% 分位)(81% percentile)	18 (99% 分位)(99% percentile)
1993-02-18	未定稿Censored→震荡Range	+7.9% 历时 658 天658 days	-2.5% 1993-02-16	—	16

日期与状态切换来自标注；其余各列由该标的价格与 ^VIX 计算得出。Dates and state switches come from the labeling; every other column is computed from the ticker's own price and ^VIX.

诊断指标Diagnostics

BSS 分桶BSS by bucket	趋势中段（>20 日） +0.265Trend interior (>20 days) +0.265 · 过渡带（6–20 日） +0.167· transition band (6–20 days) +0.167 · 转折邻域（±5 日） -0.049· turning-point window (±5 days) -0.049
Murphy 分解Murphy decomposition	可靠性 REL 0.0332（越小越好）Reliability REL 0.0332 (lower is better) · 分辨力 RES 0.0925（越大越好）· resolution RES 0.0925 (higher is better)
三类平衡准确率Three-class balanced accuracy (BAC³)	0.527 （随机基准 0.333；受趋势中段样本主导，仅作回归监控，不用于选型）(chance = 0.333; dominated by trend-interior samples, tracked as a regression check only, not used for model selection)

纳斯达克100 ETFNasdaq-100 ETFQQQ

上升Uptrend P(上) 72% · P(震) 4% · P(下) 25%P(Up) 72% · P(Range) 4% · P(Down) 25% 标注定稿至 2026-07-29，其后 12 个交易日方向尚未定稿Labels finalized through 2026-07-29; the 12 sessions since have no class yet

近两年窗口内 6 个转折 · 加粗+圆点 = 附近有大幅单日波动6 turning points in the last 2 years · bold line + dot = a large single-day move nearby

上升Uptrend 标注 74% — labeled 74% · 模型 87% · model 87%震荡Range 标注 6% — labeled 6% · 模型 0% · model 0%下降Downtrend 标注 20% — labeled 20% · 模型 13% · model 13%⚠ 「震」类召回率 <5%，该类概率不可用⚠ Recall <5% for Range — that class's probabilities are unusable

1999-03-10 → 2026-08-14 · 75 个转折点 · 2.73 段/年75 turning points · 2.73 segments/yr PT趋势腿 ≥11.4% · 候选腿 ≥26 根 · 枢轴间隔 ≥9 根PT trend leg ≥11.4% · candidate ≥26 bars · pivot gap ≥9 bars BSS 0.230 转折邻域 -0.131Turning-point window -0.131

全部 75 个转折点All 75 turning points

转折日Date	切换Switch	接下来这一段Next segment	附近最大单日Largest nearby day	当时波动Volatility then	VIX
2026-06-02	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-11.2% 历时 57 天57 days	-4.8% 2026-06-05	16% (38% 分位)(38% percentile)	16 (35% 分位)(35% percentile)
2026-03-30	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+33.7% 历时 64 天64 days	+3.4% 2026-03-31	19% (53% 分位)(53% percentile)	31 (92% 分位)(92% percentile)
2026-01-28	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-11.7% 历时 61 天61 days	-2.1% 2026-01-20	13% (24% 分位)(24% percentile)	16 (40% 分位)(40% percentile)
2025-10-29	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-0.3% 历时 91 天91 days	+2.2% 2025-11-10	19% (54% 分位)(54% percentile)	17 (44% 分位)(44% percentile)
2025-04-08	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+53.2% 历时 204 天204 days	+12.0% 2025-04-09	36% (86% 分位)(86% percentile)	52 (99% 分位)(99% percentile)
2025-02-19	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-22.8% 历时 48 天48 days	-2.8% 2025-02-27	17% (43% 分位)(43% percentile)	15 (33% 分位)(33% percentile)
2024-08-07	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+24.5% 历时 196 天196 days	-3.6% 2024-07-24	27% (73% 分位)(73% percentile)	28 (87% 分位)(87% percentile)
2024-07-10	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-13.6% 历时 28 天28 days	-3.6% 2024-07-24	11% (13% 分位)(13% percentile)	13 (16% 分位)(16% percentile)
2023-10-26	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+47.2% 历时 258 天258 days	-2.4% 2023-10-25	19% (52% 分位)(52% percentile)	21 (61% 分位)(61% percentile)
2023-07-18	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-10.8% 历时 100 天100 days	-2.3% 2023-07-20	15% (35% 分位)(35% percentile)	13 (19% 分位)(19% percentile)
2022-11-03	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+48.9% 历时 257 天257 days	+7.4% 2022-11-10	34% (83% 分位)(83% percentile)	25 (79% 分位)(79% percentile)
2022-08-15	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-21.6% 历时 80 天80 days	-4.1% 2022-08-26	27% (71% 分位)(71% percentile)	20 (58% 分位)(58% percentile)
2022-06-16	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+23.0% 历时 60 天60 days	-4.6% 2022-06-13	38% (86% 分位)(86% percentile)	33 (93% 分位)(93% percentile)
2021-12-27	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-32.7% 历时 171 天171 days	-3.1% 2022-01-05	26% (71% 分位)(71% percentile)	18 (48% 分位)(48% percentile)
2021-03-08	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+35.2% 历时 294 天294 days	+3.9% 2021-03-09	26% (70% 分位)(70% percentile)	25 (81% 分位)(81% percentile)
2021-02-12	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-10.9% 历时 24 天24 days	-3.5% 2021-02-25	20% (57% 分位)(57% percentile)	20 (58% 分位)(58% percentile)
2020-03-16	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+99.9% 历时 333 天333 days	-12.0% 2020-03-16	80% (99% 分位)(99% percentile)	83 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
2020-02-19	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-28.6% 历时 26 天26 days	-5.0% 2020-02-27	16% (45% 分位)(45% percentile)	14 (31% 分位)(31% percentile)
2018-12-24	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+66.5% 历时 422 天422 days	+6.2% 2018-12-26	32% (80% 分位)(80% percentile)	36 (96% 分位)(96% percentile)
2018-08-29	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-22.8% 历时 117 天117 days	-1.3% 2018-09-05	10% (8% 分位)(8% percentile)	12 (13% 分位)(13% percentile)
2018-04-02	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+20.3% 历时 149 天149 days	+3.7% 2018-03-26	29% (74% 分位)(74% percentile)	24 (74% 分位)(74% percentile)
2018-03-12	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-10.5% 历时 21 天21 days	+3.7% 2018-03-26	17% (46% 分位)(46% percentile)	16 (38% 分位)(38% percentile)
2017-08-10	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+24.0% 历时 214 天214 days	-2.1% 2017-08-10	10% (9% 分位)(9% percentile)	16 (38% 分位)(38% percentile)
2017-07-26	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-2.7% 历时 15 天15 days	+1.2% 2017-07-12	12% (21% 分位)(21% percentile)	10 (0% 分位)(0% percentile)
2016-11-04	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+28.5% 历时 264 天264 days	+2.4% 2016-11-07	10% (7% 分位)(7% percentile)	23 (68% 分位)(68% percentile)
2016-10-24	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-5.0% 历时 11 天11 days	+2.4% 2016-11-07	10% (6% 分位)(6% percentile)	13 (14% 分位)(14% percentile)
2016-06-27	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+17.3% 历时 119 天119 days	-4.1% 2016-06-24	18% (48% 分位)(48% percentile)	24 (73% 分位)(73% percentile)
2016-04-18	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-7.9% 历时 70 天70 days	+1.6% 2016-04-06	13% (21% 分位)(21% percentile)	13 (17% 分位)(17% percentile)
2016-02-09	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+15.8% 历时 69 天69 days	-3.5% 2016-02-05	30% (74% 分位)(74% percentile)	27 (83% 分位)(83% percentile)
2015-12-01	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-16.1% 历时 70 天70 days	-2.3% 2015-12-11	13% (24% 分位)(24% percentile)	15 (26% 分位)(26% percentile)
2015-08-25	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+17.7% 历时 98 天98 days	+5.0% 2015-08-26	24% (64% 分位)(64% percentile)	36 (95% 分位)(95% percentile)
2015-07-20	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-13.9% 历时 36 天36 days	-1.7% 2015-07-08	16% (39% 分位)(39% percentile)	12 (9% 分位)(9% percentile)
2014-12-16	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+15.0% 历时 216 天216 days	+2.4% 2014-12-18	12% (18% 分位)(18% percentile)	24 (70% 分位)(70% percentile)
2014-11-28	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-5.7% 历时 18 天18 days	-1.6% 2014-12-10	7% (0% 分位)(0% percentile)	13 (17% 分位)(17% percentile)
2014-04-11	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+26.7% 历时 231 天231 days	-3.1% 2014-04-10	21% (52% 分位)(52% percentile)	17 (35% 分位)(35% percentile)
2014-03-05	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-7.4% 历时 37 天37 days	-1.4% 2014-03-13	10% (6% 分位)(6% percentile)	14 (18% 分位)(18% percentile)
2013-08-27	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+22.4% 历时 190 天190 days	-2.0% 2013-08-27	12% (14% 分位)(14% percentile)	17 (32% 分位)(32% percentile)
2013-08-05	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-2.4% 历时 22 天22 days	-1.7% 2013-08-15	10% (4% 分位)(4% percentile)	12 (6% 分位)(6% percentile)
2012-11-15	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+25.5% 历时 263 天263 days	-2.4% 2012-11-07	16% (27% 分位)(27% percentile)	18 (35% 分位)(35% percentile)
2012-09-19	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-11.6% 历时 57 天57 days	+2.2% 2012-09-06	12% (12% 分位)(12% percentile)	14 (15% 分位)(15% percentile)
2012-06-01	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+16.8% 历时 110 天110 days	+2.8% 2012-05-21	19% (40% 分位)(40% percentile)	27 (79% 分位)(79% percentile)
2012-04-02	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-11.5% 历时 60 天60 days	+2.0% 2012-04-17	11% (7% 分位)(7% percentile)	16 (23% 分位)(23% percentile)
2011-08-19	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+37.4% 历时 227 天227 days	-6.0% 2011-08-08	45% (85% 分位)(85% percentile)	43 (96% 分位)(96% percentile)
2011-07-26	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-16.1% 历时 24 天24 days	-6.0% 2011-08-08	16% (29% 分位)(29% percentile)	20 (46% 分位)(46% percentile)
2011-02-16	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	+1.6% 历时 160 天160 days	-2.9% 2011-02-22	14% (19% 分位)(19% percentile)	17 (29% 分位)(29% percentile)
2010-07-02	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+39.2% 历时 229 天229 days	-3.9% 2010-06-29	23% (49% 分位)(49% percentile)	30 (87% 分位)(87% percentile)
2010-04-23	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-15.6% 历时 70 天70 days	-3.3% 2010-05-06	8% (0% 分位)(0% percentile)	17 (30% 分位)(30% percentile)
2008-11-20	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+99.2% 历时 519 天519 days	-7.5% 2008-12-01	66% (94% 分位)(94% percentile)	81 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
2008-06-05	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-49.4% 历时 168 天168 days	-3.0% 2008-06-06	17% (31% 分位)(31% percentile)	19 (44% 分位)(44% percentile)
2008-03-10	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+22.6% 历时 87 天87 days	+4.5% 2008-03-18	19% (36% 分位)(36% percentile)	29 (91% 分位)(91% percentile)
2007-10-31	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-24.9% 历时 131 天131 days	+4.1% 2007-11-13	20% (40% 分位)(40% percentile)	19 (45% 分位)(45% percentile)
2006-07-21	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+54.7% 历时 467 天467 days	+2.1% 2006-07-28	20% (33% 分位)(33% percentile)	17 (34% 分位)(34% percentile)
2006-04-06	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-16.4% 历时 106 天106 days	+1.9% 2006-04-18	11% (6% 分位)(6% percentile)	11 (4% 分位)(4% percentile)
2006-01-11	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-1.0% 历时 85 天85 days	-3.0% 2006-01-20	14% (13% 分位)(13% percentile)	11 (1% 分位)(1% percentile)
2005-10-12	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+15.5% 历时 91 天91 days	+2.0% 2005-10-19	12% (5% 分位)(5% percentile)	16 (22% 分位)(22% percentile)
2005-08-02	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-6.5% 历时 71 天71 days	-1.6% 2005-08-16	10% (1% 分位)(1% percentile)	12 (3% 分位)(3% percentile)
2005-04-20	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+15.6% 历时 104 天104 days	+2.7% 2005-04-21	16% (10% 分位)(10% percentile)	17 (20% 分位)(20% percentile)
2004-12-14	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-13.5% 历时 127 天127 days	+2.0% 2004-12-01	14% (2% 分位)(2% percentile)	13 (0% 分位)(0% percentile)
2004-08-12	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+24.7% 历时 124 天124 days	-2.6% 2004-08-06	23% (20% 分位)(20% percentile)	19 (21% 分位)(21% percentile)
2004-06-30	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-14.0% 历时 43 天43 days	-2.1% 2004-07-06	17% (5% 分位)(5% percentile)	14 (0% 分位)(0% percentile)
2004-03-23	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+10.9% 历时 99 天99 days	+2.7% 2004-03-25	18% (5% 分位)(5% percentile)	21 (28% 分位)(28% percentile)
2004-01-26	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-11.8% 历时 57 天57 days	-2.2% 2004-01-27	14% (1% 分位)(1% percentile)	15 (0% 分位)(0% percentile)
2003-03-11	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+62.2% 历时 321 天321 days	+5.7% 2003-03-13	24% (3% 分位)(3% percentile)	34 (92% 分位)(92% percentile)
2002-12-02	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-15.0% 历时 99 天99 days	-4.7% 2002-12-09	38% (36% 分位)(36% percentile)	27 (77% 分位)(77% percentile)
2002-10-09	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+39.6% 历时 54 天54 days	+6.1% 2002-10-01	36% (33% 分位)(33% percentile)	42 (99% 分位)(99% percentile)
2002-08-22	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-23.3% 历时 48 天48 days	+6.4% 2002-08-14	47% (59% 分位)(59% percentile)	28 (84% 分位)(84% percentile)
2002-08-05	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+22.0% 历时 17 天17 days	+6.4% 2002-08-14	54% (72% 分位)(72% percentile)	45 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
2001-12-06	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-50.0% 历时 242 天242 days	+4.9% 2001-12-05	40% (37% 分位)(37% percentile)	24 (50% 分位)(50% percentile)
2001-09-21	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+52.2% 历时 76 天76 days	-8.5% 2001-09-17	48% (61% 分位)(61% percentile)	43 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
2001-05-21	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-44.8% 历时 123 天123 days	+6.3% 2001-05-21	45% (51% 分位)(51% percentile)	21 (16% 分位)(16% percentile)
2001-04-04	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+49.9% 历时 47 天47 days	+10.4% 2001-04-18	69% (83% 分位)(83% percentile)	34 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
2000-09-01	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-66.8% 历时 215 天215 days	-3.5% 2000-09-06	22% (1% 分位)(1% percentile)	18 (3% 分位)(3% percentile)
2000-05-23	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+37.2% 历时 101 天101 days	+10.0% 2000-05-30	66% (87% 分位)(87% percentile)	26 (79% 分位)(79% percentile)
2000-03-27	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-36.5% 历时 57 天57 days	-6.1% 2000-04-10	45% (84% 分位)(84% percentile)	25 (71% 分位)(71% percentile)
1999-03-23	未定稿Censored→上升Uptrend	+141.2% 历时 370 天370 days	+3.7% 1999-03-25	—	27

诊断指标Diagnostics

BSS 分桶BSS by bucket	趋势中段（>20 日） +0.427Trend interior (>20 days) +0.427 · 过渡带（6–20 日） +0.144· transition band (6–20 days) +0.144 · 转折邻域（±5 日） -0.131· turning-point window (±5 days) -0.131
Murphy 分解Murphy decomposition	可靠性 REL 0.0105（越小越好）Reliability REL 0.0105 (lower is better) · 分辨力 RES 0.0785（越大越好）· resolution RES 0.0785 (higher is better)
三类平衡准确率Three-class balanced accuracy (BAC³)	0.445 （随机基准 0.333；受趋势中段样本主导，仅作回归监控，不用于选型）(chance = 0.333; dominated by trend-interior samples, tracked as a regression check only, not used for model selection)

罗素2000 ETFRussell 2000 ETFIWM

上升Uptrend P(上) 86% · P(震) 10% · P(下) 4%P(Up) 86% · P(Range) 10% · P(Down) 4% 距上次已确认的转折 95 个交易日（2026-03-30）95 trading days since the last confirmed turning point (2026-03-30)

近两年窗口内 6 个转折 · 加粗+圆点 = 附近有大幅单日波动6 turning points in the last 2 years · bold line + dot = a large single-day move nearby

上升Uptrend 标注 61% — labeled 61% · 模型 80% · model 80%震荡Range 标注 22% — labeled 22% · 模型 3% · model 3%下降Downtrend 标注 17% — labeled 17% · 模型 17% · model 17%⚠ 「震」类召回率 <5%，该类概率不可用⚠ Recall <5% for Range — that class's probabilities are unusable

2000-05-26 → 2026-08-14 · 73 个转折点 · 2.78 段/年73 turning points · 2.78 segments/yr PT趋势腿 ≥17.5% · 候选腿 ≥26 根 · 枢轴间隔 ≥9 根PT trend leg ≥17.5% · candidate ≥26 bars · pivot gap ≥9 bars BSS 0.154 转折邻域 -0.110Turning-point window -0.110

全部 73 个转折点All 73 turning points

转折日Date	切换Switch	接下来这一段Next segment	附近最大单日Largest nearby day	当时波动Volatility then	VIX
2026-03-30	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+27.6% 历时 137 天137 days（仍在进行中） (still in progress)	+3.5% 2026-03-31	23% (69% 分位)(69% percentile)	31 (91% 分位)(91% percentile)
2026-01-22	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-11.0% 历时 67 天67 days	+2.0% 2026-01-21	14% (20% 分位)(20% percentile)	16 (37% 分位)(37% percentile)
2025-11-20	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+18.2% 历时 63 天63 days	-2.8% 2025-11-13	19% (48% 分位)(48% percentile)	26 (85% 分位)(85% percentile)
2025-10-15	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-8.5% 历时 36 天36 days	-3.0% 2025-10-10	21% (59% 分位)(59% percentile)	21 (65% 分位)(65% percentile)
2025-04-08	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+44.0% 历时 190 天190 days	+8.5% 2025-04-09	35% (92% 分位)(92% percentile)	52 (99% 分位)(99% percentile)
2024-11-25	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-27.5% 历时 134 天134 days	+1.8% 2024-11-22	27% (82% 分位)(82% percentile)	15 (30% 分位)(30% percentile)
2024-08-07	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+20.4% 历时 110 天110 days	-3.5% 2024-08-02	34% (91% 分位)(91% percentile)	28 (87% 分位)(87% percentile)
2024-07-16	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-10.1% 历时 22 天22 days	+3.6% 2024-07-11	19% (48% 分位)(48% percentile)	13 (20% 分位)(20% percentile)
2023-10-27	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+39.7% 历时 263 天263 days	+2.7% 2023-11-03	19% (53% 分位)(53% percentile)	21 (66% 分位)(66% percentile)
2023-07-31	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-18.0% 历时 88 天88 days	-1.4% 2023-08-02	16% (32% 分位)(32% percentile)	14 (23% 分位)(23% percentile)
2023-02-02	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	+0.8% 历时 179 天179 days	+2.4% 2023-01-31	19% (52% 分位)(52% percentile)	19 (54% 分位)(54% percentile)
2022-09-26	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+21.4% 历时 129 天129 days	-3.9% 2022-09-13	24% (75% 分位)(75% percentile)	32 (92% 分位)(92% percentile)
2022-08-15	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-17.9% 历时 42 天42 days	-3.3% 2022-08-26	20% (60% 分位)(60% percentile)	20 (60% 分位)(60% percentile)
2022-06-16	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+22.7% 历时 60 天60 days	-4.7% 2022-06-13	35% (91% 分位)(91% percentile)	33 (93% 分位)(93% percentile)
2022-03-29	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-22.4% 历时 79 天79 days	+3.1% 2022-03-16	28% (84% 分位)(84% percentile)	19 (57% 分位)(57% percentile)
2022-01-27	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+10.8% 历时 61 天61 days	-3.0% 2022-01-18	23% (73% 分位)(73% percentile)	30 (90% 分位)(90% percentile)
2021-11-08	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-20.8% 历时 80 天80 days	+2.6% 2021-11-01	16% (36% 分位)(36% percentile)	17 (48% 分位)(48% percentile)
2021-03-15	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	+4.1% 历时 238 天238 days	-3.6% 2021-03-23	31% (89% 分位)(89% percentile)	20 (62% 分位)(62% percentile)
2020-03-23	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+138.0% 历时 357 天357 days	-13.3% 2020-03-16	89% (100% 分位)(100% percentile)	62 (99% 分位)(99% percentile)
2020-01-16	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-41.1% 历时 67 天67 days	-2.1% 2020-01-31	7% (0% 分位)(0% percentile)	12 (14% 分位)(14% percentile)
2019-08-27	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+17.9% 历时 142 天142 days	-3.1% 2019-08-23	25% (80% 分位)(80% percentile)	20 (65% 分位)(65% percentile)
2019-05-06	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-9.6% 历时 113 天113 days	-3.2% 2019-05-13	13% (20% 分位)(20% percentile)	15 (39% 分位)(39% percentile)
2018-12-24	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+28.0% 历时 133 天133 days	+4.8% 2018-12-26	26% (81% 分位)(81% percentile)	36 (95% 分位)(95% percentile)
2018-08-31	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-26.8% 历时 115 天115 days	+1.1% 2018-08-21	9% (1% 分位)(1% percentile)	13 (19% 分位)(19% percentile)
2017-11-15	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+20.0% 历时 289 天289 days	+1.6% 2017-11-28	8% (1% 分位)(1% percentile)	13 (21% 分位)(21% percentile)
2017-07-25	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	+1.3% 历时 113 天113 days	-1.1% 2017-08-02	11% (6% 分位)(6% percentile)	9 (0% 分位)(0% percentile)
2016-11-03	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+26.7% 历时 264 天264 days	+3.1% 2016-11-09	12% (8% 分位)(8% percentile)	22 (69% 分位)(69% percentile)
2016-09-22	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-8.3% 历时 42 天42 days	-3.1% 2016-09-09	18% (42% 分位)(42% percentile)	12 (8% 分位)(8% percentile)
2016-02-11	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+33.7% 历时 224 天224 days	+3.3% 2016-01-29	26% (78% 分位)(78% percentile)	28 (85% 分位)(85% percentile)
2015-12-01	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-20.6% 历时 72 天72 days	-2.2% 2015-12-11	13% (14% 分位)(14% percentile)	15 (28% 分位)(28% percentile)
2015-09-29	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+11.5% 历时 63 天63 days	-2.8% 2015-09-28	21% (62% 分位)(62% percentile)	27 (83% 分位)(83% percentile)
2015-06-23	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-16.1% 历时 98 天98 days	-2.5% 2015-06-29	11% (3% 分位)(3% percentile)	12 (8% 分位)(8% percentile)
2014-10-13	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+24.5% 历时 253 天253 days	-2.7% 2014-10-09	19% (49% 分位)(49% percentile)	25 (76% 分位)(76% percentile)
2014-03-04	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-12.1% 历时 223 天223 days	+2.5% 2014-03-04	13% (7% 分位)(7% percentile)	14 (21% 分位)(21% percentile)
2012-11-15	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+59.5% 历时 474 天474 days	-2.4% 2012-11-07	16% (25% 分位)(25% percentile)	18 (38% 分位)(38% percentile)
2012-09-14	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-10.7% 历时 62 天62 days	+1.8% 2012-09-06	11% (2% 分位)(2% percentile)	15 (19% 分位)(19% percentile)
2012-06-04	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+17.9% 历时 102 天102 days	-3.0% 2012-06-01	19% (42% 分位)(42% percentile)	26 (76% 分位)(76% percentile)
2012-03-26	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-12.7% 历时 70 天70 days	-2.4% 2012-04-10	19% (37% 分位)(37% percentile)	14 (19% 分位)(19% percentile)
2011-10-03	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+39.5% 历时 175 天175 days	+6.2% 2011-10-04	40% (92% 分位)(92% percentile)	45 (97% 分位)(97% percentile)
2011-04-29	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-28.9% 历时 157 天157 days	+2.0% 2011-04-20	14% (11% 分位)(11% percentile)	15 (23% 分位)(23% percentile)
2011-02-18	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	+3.9% 历时 70 天70 days	-2.6% 2011-02-22	15% (17% 分位)(17% percentile)	16 (31% 分位)(31% percentile)
2010-07-06	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+42.2% 历时 227 天227 days	-3.8% 2010-06-29	26% (74% 分位)(74% percentile)	30 (84% 分位)(84% percentile)
2010-04-23	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-20.1% 历时 74 天74 days	-3.7% 2010-05-06	13% (8% 分位)(8% percentile)	17 (33% 分位)(33% percentile)
2009-11-02	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+32.7% 历时 172 天172 days	-3.3% 2009-10-28	24% (71% 分位)(71% percentile)	30 (84% 分位)(84% percentile)
2009-10-14	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-9.8% 历时 19 天19 days	-3.3% 2009-10-28	22% (56% 分位)(56% percentile)	23 (63% 分位)(63% percentile)
2009-03-09	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+82.9% 历时 219 天219 days	+8.5% 2009-03-23	39% (93% 分位)(93% percentile)	50 (97% 分位)(97% percentile)
2009-01-06	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-32.9% 历时 62 天62 days	-6.8% 2009-01-20	44% (97% 分位)(97% percentile)	39 (96% 分位)(96% percentile)
2008-11-20	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+34.0% 历时 47 天47 days	-11.2% 2008-12-01	78% (99% 分位)(99% percentile)	81 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
2008-08-14	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-48.7% 历时 98 天98 days	+2.6% 2008-08-08	23% (72% 分位)(72% percentile)	20 (58% 分位)(58% percentile)
2008-06-05	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-0.8% 历时 70 天70 days	-3.0% 2008-06-06	16% (26% 分位)(26% percentile)	19 (50% 分位)(50% percentile)
2008-03-10	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+18.3% 历时 87 天87 days	+4.6% 2008-03-18	24% (77% 分位)(77% percentile)	29 (90% 分位)(90% percentile)
2007-10-09	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-23.1% 历时 153 天153 days	-3.6% 2007-10-19	21% (65% 分位)(65% percentile)	16 (41% 分位)(41% percentile)
2007-07-13	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-0.6% 历时 88 天88 days	-2.7% 2007-07-26	15% (23% 分位)(23% percentile)	15 (37% 分位)(37% percentile)
2006-06-13	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+29.0% 历时 395 天395 days	+3.4% 2006-06-15	24% (81% 分位)(81% percentile)	24 (73% 分位)(73% percentile)
2006-05-08	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-14.1% 历时 36 天36 days	-2.4% 2006-05-12	16% (26% 分位)(26% percentile)	12 (9% 分位)(9% percentile)
2005-10-12	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+26.8% 历时 208 天208 days	-2.6% 2005-10-05	17% (30% 分位)(30% percentile)	16 (27% 分位)(27% percentile)
2005-08-02	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-9.6% 历时 71 天71 days	-1.8% 2005-08-16	15% (12% 分位)(12% percentile)	12 (3% 分位)(3% percentile)
2005-04-28	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+20.5% 历时 96 天96 days	-2.6% 2005-04-28	21% (59% 分位)(59% percentile)	17 (25% 分位)(25% percentile)
2004-12-28	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-12.1% 历时 121 天121 days	-2.1% 2005-01-04	13% (3% 分位)(3% percentile)	12 (0% 分位)(0% percentile)
2004-08-13	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+26.5% 历时 137 天137 days	-2.1% 2004-08-06	22% (56% 分位)(56% percentile)	18 (19% 分位)(19% percentile)
2004-01-26	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-13.4% 历时 200 天200 days	-2.5% 2004-02-04	13% (1% 分位)(1% percentile)	15 (0% 分位)(0% percentile)
2003-03-11	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+76.1% 历时 321 天321 days	+2.7% 2003-03-13	15% (4% 分位)(4% percentile)	34 (88% 分位)(88% percentile)
2002-11-27	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-15.4% 历时 104 天104 days	-2.7% 2002-12-09	25% (61% 分位)(61% percentile)	27 (69% 分位)(69% percentile)
2002-10-09	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+25.7% 历时 49 天49 days	-4.2% 2002-10-09	33% (85% 分位)(85% percentile)	42 (99% 分位)(99% percentile)
2002-04-16	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-37.2% 历时 176 天176 days	+2.5% 2002-04-16	20% (32% 分位)(32% percentile)	18 (4% 分位)(4% percentile)
2001-09-21	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+38.9% 历时 207 天207 days	-5.0% 2001-09-17	27% (68% 分位)(68% percentile)	43 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
2001-05-22	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-26.6% 历时 122 天122 days	-2.3% 2001-05-23	15% (6% 分位)(6% percentile)	21 (29% 分位)(29% percentile)
2001-04-03	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+22.3% 历时 49 天49 days	+4.8% 2001-04-05	30% (71% 分位)(71% percentile)	35 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
2001-01-30	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-17.2% 历时 63 天63 days	+2.5% 2001-01-23	30% (66% 分位)(66% percentile)	23 (53% 分位)(53% percentile)
2000-12-20	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+16.1% 历时 41 天41 days	+4.6% 2000-12-11	38% (98% 分位)(98% percentile)	32 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
2000-09-07	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-18.3% 历时 104 天104 days	-2.4% 2000-09-18	13%	19 (37% 分位)(37% percentile)
2000-07-17	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-0.2% 历时 52 天52 days	-2.7% 2000-07-21	22%	19
2000-05-26	未定稿Censored→上升Uptrend	+19.3% 历时 52 天52 days	+5.2% 2000-06-02	—	24

诊断指标Diagnostics

BSS 分桶BSS by bucket	趋势中段（>20 日） +0.251Trend interior (>20 days) +0.251 · 过渡带（6–20 日） +0.127· transition band (6–20 days) +0.127 · 转折邻域（±5 日） -0.110· turning-point window (±5 days) -0.110
Murphy 分解Murphy decomposition	可靠性 REL 0.0068（越小越好）Reliability REL 0.0068 (lower is better) · 分辨力 RES 0.0725（越大越好）· resolution RES 0.0725 (higher is better)
三类平衡准确率Three-class balanced accuracy (BAC³)	0.476 （随机基准 0.333；受趋势中段样本主导，仅作回归监控，不用于选型）(chance = 0.333; dominated by trend-interior samples, tracked as a regression check only, not used for model selection)

20年期美债 ETF20+ Year Treasury ETFTLT

不明确Unclear P(上) 32% · P(震) 25% · P(下) 43%P(Up) 32% · P(Range) 25% · P(Down) 43% 标注定稿至 2026-07-31，其后 10 个交易日方向尚未定稿Labels finalized through 2026-07-31; the 10 sessions since have no class yet

近两年窗口内 5 个转折 · 加粗+圆点 = 附近有大幅单日波动5 turning points in the last 2 years · bold line + dot = a large single-day move nearby

上升Uptrend 标注 44% — labeled 44% · 模型 73% · model 73%震荡Range 标注 21% — labeled 21% · 模型 0% · model 0%下降Downtrend 标注 35% — labeled 35% · 模型 27% · model 27%⚠ 「震」类召回率 <5%，该类概率不可用⚠ Recall <5% for Range — that class's probabilities are unusable

2002-07-30 → 2026-08-14 · 68 个转折点 · 2.83 段/年68 turning points · 2.83 segments/yr PT趋势腿 ≥9.3% · 候选腿 ≥26 根 · 枢轴间隔 ≥9 根PT trend leg ≥9.3% · candidate ≥26 bars · pivot gap ≥9 bars BSS 0.157 转折邻域 -0.125Turning-point window -0.125

全部 68 个转折点All 68 turning points

转折日Date	切换Switch	接下来这一段Next segment	附近最大单日Largest nearby day	当时波动Volatility then	VIX
2025-10-22	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-7.6% 历时 282 天282 days	+1.6% 2025-10-10	8% (10% 分位)(10% percentile)	19 (60% 分位)(60% percentile)
2025-05-21	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+11.7% 历时 154 天154 days	-1.7% 2025-05-21	13% (53% 分位)(53% percentile)	21 (70% 分位)(70% percentile)
2025-04-04	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-9.2% 历时 47 天47 days	-3.0% 2025-04-07	11% (43% 分位)(43% percentile)	45 (98% 分位)(98% percentile)
2025-01-14	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+10.0% 历时 80 天80 days	+1.7% 2025-01-15	10% (33% 分位)(33% percentile)	19 (60% 分位)(60% percentile)
2024-09-16	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-14.6% 历时 120 天120 days	+1.6% 2024-09-03	11% (39% 分位)(39% percentile)	17 (51% 分位)(51% percentile)
2024-04-25	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+17.4% 历时 144 天144 days	-1.6% 2024-04-15	14% (65% 分位)(65% percentile)	15 (39% 分位)(39% percentile)
2023-12-27	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-11.8% 历时 120 天120 days	+2.6% 2023-12-14	19% (86% 分位)(86% percentile)	12 (14% 分位)(14% percentile)
2023-10-19	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+22.6% 历时 69 天69 days	-2.7% 2023-10-12	24% (97% 分位)(97% percentile)	21 (70% 分位)(70% percentile)
2023-04-06	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-22.4% 历时 196 天196 days	-2.3% 2023-03-27	21% (92% 分位)(92% percentile)	18 (56% 分位)(56% percentile)
2023-03-02	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+9.4% 历时 35 天35 days	+3.4% 2023-03-10	15% (70% 分位)(70% percentile)	20 (63% 分位)(63% percentile)
2023-01-18	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-8.0% 历时 43 天43 days	+2.4% 2023-01-18	23% (96% 分位)(96% percentile)	20 (65% 分位)(65% percentile)
2022-10-24	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+18.4% 历时 86 天86 days	+2.9% 2022-10-25	21% (93% 分位)(93% percentile)	30 (89% 分位)(89% percentile)
2022-08-01	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-22.7% 历时 84 天84 days	-2.4% 2022-08-05	18% (88% 分位)(88% percentile)	23 (75% 分位)(75% percentile)
2022-06-14	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+10.7% 历时 48 天48 days	-3.1% 2022-06-13	21% (94% 分位)(94% percentile)	33 (93% 分位)(93% percentile)
2021-12-03	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-28.9% 历时 193 天193 days	+2.5% 2021-11-26	19% (91% 分位)(91% percentile)	31 (91% 分位)(91% percentile)
2021-03-18	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+16.6% 历时 260 天260 days	-2.1% 2021-03-12	19% (90% 分位)(90% percentile)	22 (72% 分位)(72% percentile)
2020-08-04	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-21.3% 历时 226 天226 days	-1.2% 2020-08-11	9% (24% 分位)(24% percentile)	24 (79% 分位)(79% percentile)
2020-06-05	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+10.2% 历时 60 天60 days	+1.9% 2020-06-11	15% (74% 分位)(74% percentile)	25 (82% 分位)(82% percentile)
2020-04-21	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-8.6% 历时 45 天45 days	+2.6% 2020-04-15	19% (92% 分位)(92% percentile)	45 (98% 分位)(98% percentile)
2019-11-08	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+28.0% 历时 165 天165 days	-1.8% 2019-11-07	14% (70% 分位)(70% percentile)	12 (13% 分位)(13% percentile)
2019-08-28	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-8.2% 历时 72 天72 days	+2.3% 2019-08-14	17% (87% 分位)(87% percentile)	19 (67% 分位)(67% percentile)
2019-03-01	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+25.8% 历时 180 天180 days	-1.1% 2019-02-27	9% (20% 分位)(20% percentile)	14 (29% 分位)(29% percentile)
2019-01-03	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-3.5% 历时 57 天57 days	+1.3% 2018-12-19	10% (34% 分位)(34% percentile)	25 (84% 分位)(84% percentile)
2018-11-02	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+10.8% 历时 62 天62 days	-1.2% 2018-11-02	9% (25% 分位)(25% percentile)	20 (67% 分位)(67% percentile)
2018-02-21	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	-2.1% 历时 254 天254 days	-1.2% 2018-02-21	12% (50% 分位)(50% percentile)	20 (69% 分位)(69% percentile)
2017-12-15	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-8.7% 历时 68 天68 days	+1.3% 2017-12-01	8% (15% 分位)(15% percentile)	9 (0% 分位)(0% percentile)
2017-09-07	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-0.1% 历时 99 天99 days	+1.6% 2017-09-05	10% (26% 分位)(26% percentile)	12 (8% 分位)(8% percentile)
2017-03-13	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+12.4% 历时 178 天178 days	-1.7% 2017-03-01	10% (29% 分位)(29% percentile)	11 (4% 分位)(4% percentile)
2016-12-14	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+0.4% 历时 89 天89 days	-1.6% 2016-11-30	13% (58% 分位)(58% percentile)	13 (20% 分位)(20% percentile)
2016-07-08	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-17.9% 历时 159 天159 days	+2.7% 2016-06-24	16% (78% 分位)(78% percentile)	13 (19% 分位)(19% percentile)
2016-03-11	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+13.7% 历时 119 天119 days	-1.8% 2016-03-01	13% (58% 分位)(58% percentile)	16 (45% 分位)(45% percentile)
2016-02-11	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-4.6% 历时 29 天29 days	+2.2% 2016-02-08	14% (63% 分位)(63% percentile)	28 (86% 分位)(86% percentile)
2015-11-09	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+13.7% 历时 94 天94 days	-1.6% 2015-10-29	11% (45% 分位)(45% percentile)	17 (46% 分位)(46% percentile)
2015-06-26	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+3.8% 历时 136 天136 days	+2.6% 2015-06-29	17% (84% 分位)(84% percentile)	14 (27% 分位)(27% percentile)
2015-01-30	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-15.8% 历时 147 天147 days	-2.1% 2015-02-03	17% (84% 分位)(84% percentile)	21 (67% 分位)(67% percentile)
2013-12-27	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+39.9% 历时 399 天399 days	+1.5% 2013-12-20	10% (31% 分位)(31% percentile)	12 (12% 分位)(12% percentile)
2013-08-21	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+1.1% 历时 128 天128 days	-1.4% 2013-08-13	13% (61% 分位)(61% percentile)	16 (35% 分位)(35% percentile)
2013-05-01	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-17.0% 历时 112 天112 days	-2.4% 2013-05-03	13% (63% 分位)(63% percentile)	14 (25% 分位)(25% percentile)
2013-03-08	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+8.5% 历时 54 天54 days	+2.0% 2013-02-25	11% (47% 分位)(47% percentile)	13 (13% 分位)(13% percentile)
2012-11-14	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-8.7% 历时 114 天114 days	+1.8% 2012-11-07	16% (75% 分位)(75% percentile)	18 (45% 分位)(45% percentile)
2012-09-14	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+7.4% 历时 61 天61 days	-2.7% 2012-09-14	16% (76% 分位)(76% percentile)	15 (23% 分位)(23% percentile)
2012-07-25	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-10.1% 历时 51 天51 days	-1.9% 2012-07-27	10% (38% 分位)(38% percentile)	19 (52% 分位)(52% percentile)
2012-03-19	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+21.1% 历时 128 天128 days	-2.5% 2012-03-14	16% (78% 分位)(78% percentile)	15 (27% 分位)(27% percentile)
2011-12-19	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-10.4% 历时 91 天91 days	-2.5% 2011-12-20	18% (85% 分位)(85% percentile)	25 (72% 分位)(72% percentile)
2011-10-27	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+12.9% 历时 53 天53 days	+4.0% 2011-10-31	26% (97% 分位)(97% percentile)	25 (75% 分位)(75% percentile)
2011-10-03	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-10.9% 历时 24 天24 days	+3.8% 2011-09-22	28% (98% 分位)(98% percentile)	45 (96% 分位)(96% percentile)
2011-02-10	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+44.3% 历时 235 天235 days	+1.5% 2011-02-22	13% (68% 分位)(68% percentile)	16 (36% 分位)(36% percentile)
2010-08-31	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-17.1% 历时 163 天163 days	-2.8% 2010-08-27	19% (90% 分位)(90% percentile)	26 (76% 分位)(76% percentile)
2010-04-05	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+25.8% 历时 148 天148 days	-1.8% 2010-03-24	11% (55% 分位)(55% percentile)	17 (45% 分位)(45% percentile)
2009-10-01	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-10.5% 历时 186 天186 days	-2.3% 2009-10-09	14% (78% 分位)(78% percentile)	28 (81% 分位)(81% percentile)
2009-06-10	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+14.5% 历时 113 天113 days	-3.0% 2009-06-01	23% (96% 分位)(96% percentile)	28 (81% 分位)(81% percentile)
2008-12-30	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-26.6% 历时 162 天162 days	+2.7% 2008-12-17	18% (96% 分位)(96% percentile)	42 (96% 分位)(96% percentile)
2008-06-13	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+40.6% 历时 200 天200 days	+1.3% 2008-06-06	11% (64% 分位)(64% percentile)	21 (77% 分位)(77% percentile)
2008-03-20	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-7.5% 历时 85 天85 days	-1.9% 2008-03-24	16% (97% 分位)(97% percentile)	27 (87% 分位)(87% percentile)
2007-06-12	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+22.2% 历时 282 天282 days	-1.8% 2007-06-07	9% (44% 分位)(44% percentile)	17 (65% 分位)(65% percentile)
2006-12-04	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-8.0% 历时 190 天190 days	-0.9% 2006-12-13	5% (0% 分位)(0% percentile)	11 (7% 分位)(7% percentile)
2006-05-12	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+13.9% 历时 206 天206 days	+1.4% 2006-05-18	8% (11% 分位)(11% percentile)	14 (38% 分位)(38% percentile)
2006-01-17	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-9.3% 历时 115 天115 days	-1.1% 2006-01-25	7% (1% 分位)(1% percentile)	12 (10% 分位)(10% percentile)
2005-06-30	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-1.7% 历时 201 天201 days	-1.2% 2005-07-01	10% (41% 分位)(41% percentile)	12 (5% 分位)(5% percentile)
2005-03-22	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+11.5% 历时 100 天100 days	-1.6% 2005-03-09	11% (55% 分位)(55% percentile)	14 (17% 分位)(17% percentile)
2005-02-09	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-6.6% 历时 41 天41 days	+1.4% 2005-02-04	8% (10% 分位)(10% percentile)	12 (2% 分位)(2% percentile)
2004-12-02	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+10.1% 历时 69 天69 days	+1.6% 2004-12-08	9% (23% 分位)(23% percentile)	13 (1% 分位)(1% percentile)
2004-10-25	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-3.4% 历时 38 天38 days	-1.1% 2004-11-05	8% (7% 分位)(7% percentile)	17 (29% 分位)(29% percentile)
2004-05-13	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+13.7% 历时 165 天165 days	-1.3% 2004-05-07	9% (14% 分位)(14% percentile)	19 (37% 分位)(37% percentile)
2004-03-16	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-10.9% 历时 58 天58 days	+1.9% 2004-03-05	10% (18% 分位)(18% percentile)	20 (45% 分位)(45% percentile)
2003-08-13	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+15.7% 历时 216 天216 days	+2.0% 2003-08-06	17% (96% 分位)(96% percentile)	19 (3% 分位)(3% percentile)
2003-06-13	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-15.7% 历时 61 天61 days	-1.6% 2003-06-25	12% (52% 分位)(52% percentile)	21 (9% 分位)(9% percentile)
2002-07-30	未定稿Censored→上升Uptrend	+24.5% 历时 318 天318 days	+1.4% 2002-08-09	—	32

诊断指标Diagnostics

BSS 分桶BSS by bucket	趋势中段（>20 日） +0.279Trend interior (>20 days) +0.279 · 过渡带（6–20 日） +0.080· transition band (6–20 days) +0.080 · 转折邻域（±5 日） -0.125· turning-point window (±5 days) -0.125
Murphy 分解Murphy decomposition	可靠性 REL 0.0251（越小越好）Reliability REL 0.0251 (lower is better) · 分辨力 RES 0.1040（越大越好）· resolution RES 0.1040 (higher is better)
三类平衡准确率Three-class balanced accuracy (BAC³)	0.466 （随机基准 0.333；受趋势中段样本主导，仅作回归监控，不用于选型）(chance = 0.333; dominated by trend-interior samples, tracked as a regression check only, not used for model selection)

A股上证指数Shanghai Composite (China A-shares)000001.SS

下降Downtrend P(上) 26% · P(震) 23% · P(下) 52%P(Up) 26% · P(Range) 23% · P(Down) 52% 标注定稿至 2026-07-17，其后 16 个交易日方向尚未定稿Labels finalized through 2026-07-17; the 16 sessions since have no class yet

近两年窗口内 4 个转折 · 加粗+圆点 = 附近有大幅单日波动4 turning points in the last 2 years · bold line + dot = a large single-day move nearby

上升Uptrend 标注 41% — labeled 41% · 模型 61% · model 61%震荡Range 标注 28% — labeled 28% · 模型 0% · model 0%下降Downtrend 标注 31% — labeled 31% · 模型 39% · model 39%⚠ 「震」类召回率 <5%，该类概率不可用⚠ Recall <5% for Range — that class's probabilities are unusable

1997-07-02 → 2026-08-13 · 80 个转折点 · 2.75 段/年80 turning points · 2.75 segments/yr PT趋势腿 ≥15.0% · 候选腿 ≥25 根 · 枢轴间隔 ≥9 根PT trend leg ≥15.0% · candidate ≥25 bars · pivot gap ≥9 bars BSS 0.147 转折邻域 -0.177Turning-point window -0.177

全部 80 个转折点All 80 turning points

转折日Date	切换Switch	接下来这一段Next segment	附近最大单日Largest nearby day	当时波动Volatility then	VIX
2025-11-13	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-6.6% 历时 246 天246 days	-2.4% 2025-11-21	12% (21% 分位)(21% percentile)	20 (57% 分位)(57% percentile)
2025-04-07	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+30.1% 历时 220 天220 days	-7.3% 2025-04-07	28% (81% 分位)(81% percentile)	47 (99% 分位)(99% percentile)
2024-10-08	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-11.3% 历时 181 天181 days	+8.1% 2024-09-30	36% (91% 分位)(91% percentile)	21 (63% 分位)(63% percentile)
2024-09-13	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+29.1% 历时 25 天25 days	+8.1% 2024-09-30	8% (2% 分位)(2% percentile)	17 (39% 分位)(39% percentile)
2024-05-20	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-14.7% 历时 116 天116 days	-1.3% 2024-05-23	10% (7% 分位)(7% percentile)	12 (10% 分位)(10% percentile)
2024-02-05	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+17.4% 历时 105 天105 days	+3.2% 2024-02-06	21% (63% 分位)(63% percentile)	14 (21% 分位)(21% percentile)
2023-07-31	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-17.9% 历时 189 天189 days	+2.1% 2023-07-25	13% (23% 分位)(23% percentile)	14 (21% 分位)(21% percentile)
2023-05-08	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-3.1% 历时 84 天84 days	-2.0% 2023-04-21	13% (24% 分位)(24% percentile)	17 (39% 分位)(39% percentile)
2022-10-31	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+17.3% 历时 189 天189 days	+2.6% 2022-11-01	18% (49% 分位)(49% percentile)	26 (80% 分位)(80% percentile)
2022-06-28	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-15.1% 历时 125 天125 days	+1.6% 2022-06-23	13% (20% 分位)(20% percentile)	28 (87% 分位)(87% percentile)
2022-04-26	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+18.1% 历时 63 天63 days	-5.1% 2022-04-25	25% (74% 分位)(74% percentile)	34 (94% 分位)(94% percentile)
2021-12-13	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-21.6% 历时 134 天134 days	+1.2% 2021-12-08	8% (3% 分位)(3% percentile)	20 (58% 分位)(58% percentile)
2020-08-18	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	+6.7% 历时 482 天482 days	+2.3% 2020-08-17	21% (59% 分位)(59% percentile)	22 (64% 分位)(64% percentile)
2020-03-23	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+29.7% 历时 148 天148 days	-3.4% 2020-03-16	30% (81% 分位)(81% percentile)	62 (99% 分位)(99% percentile)
2020-01-13	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-14.6% 历时 70 天70 days	-7.7% 2020-02-03	11% (12% 分位)(12% percentile)	12 (13% 分位)(13% percentile)
2019-08-07	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+12.5% 历时 159 天159 days	+2.1% 2019-08-19	12% (15% 分位)(15% percentile)	19 (55% 分位)(55% percentile)
2019-04-19	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-15.4% 历时 110 天110 days	-5.8% 2019-05-06	21% (59% 分位)(59% percentile)	—
2019-01-03	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+32.7% 历时 106 天106 days	+2.0% 2019-01-04	12% (12% 分位)(12% percentile)	25 (80% 分位)(80% percentile)
2018-10-18	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	-0.9% 历时 77 天77 days	-5.2% 2018-10-11	30% (81% 分位)(81% percentile)	20 (57% 分位)(57% percentile)
2018-01-24	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-30.1% 历时 267 天267 days	-3.4% 2018-02-06	8% (2% 分位)(2% percentile)	11 (7% 分位)(7% percentile)
2017-05-10	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+16.6% 历时 259 天259 days	-0.9% 2017-05-10	8% (1% 分位)(1% percentile)	10 (0% 分位)(0% percentile)
2016-08-15	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-2.3% 历时 268 天268 days	+2.4% 2016-08-15	15% (23% 分位)(23% percentile)	12 (5% 分位)(5% percentile)
2016-01-28	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+17.7% 历时 200 天200 days	-6.4% 2016-01-26	50% (97% 分位)(97% percentile)	22 (64% 分位)(64% percentile)
2015-12-22	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-27.3% 历时 37 天37 days	-6.9% 2016-01-04	28% (75% 分位)(75% percentile)	17 (34% 分位)(34% percentile)
2015-08-26	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+24.7% 历时 118 天118 days	-8.5% 2015-08-24	55% (99% 分位)(99% percentile)	30 (89% 分位)(89% percentile)
2015-06-12	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-43.3% 历时 75 天75 days	-7.4% 2015-06-26	35% (87% 分位)(87% percentile)	14 (18% 分位)(18% percentile)
2014-10-27	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+125.6% 历时 228 天228 days	+2.2% 2014-11-10	10% (3% 分位)(3% percentile)	16 (29% 分位)(29% percentile)
2014-10-09	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-4.1% 历时 18 天18 days	-1.7% 2014-09-22	13% (11% 分位)(11% percentile)	19 (43% 分位)(43% percentile)
2014-01-20	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+20.0% 历时 262 天262 days	+2.2% 2014-01-22	13% (12% 分位)(12% percentile)	—
2013-09-12	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-11.7% 历时 130 天130 days	+3.4% 2013-09-09	15% (22% 分位)(22% percentile)	14 (17% 分位)(17% percentile)
2013-06-27	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+15.7% 历时 77 天77 days	-5.3% 2013-06-24	23% (64% 分位)(64% percentile)	17 (28% 分位)(28% percentile)
2013-02-06	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-19.9% 历时 141 天141 days	-3.0% 2013-02-21	18% (39% 分位)(39% percentile)	13 (12% 分位)(12% percentile)
2012-12-03	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+24.2% 历时 65 天65 days	+4.3% 2012-12-14	12% (10% 分位)(10% percentile)	17 (25% 分位)(25% percentile)
2012-09-26	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	-2.2% 历时 68 天68 days	+2.6% 2012-09-27	19% (44% 分位)(44% percentile)	17 (25% 分位)(25% percentile)
2012-03-02	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-18.6% 历时 208 天208 days	-2.6% 2012-03-14	14% (15% 分位)(15% percentile)	17 (26% 分位)(26% percentile)
2012-01-05	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+14.5% 历时 57 天57 days	+4.2% 2012-01-17	16% (26% 分位)(26% percentile)	21 (49% 分位)(49% percentile)
2011-07-15	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-23.8% 历时 174 天174 days	-3.0% 2011-07-25	15% (24% 分位)(24% percentile)	20 (39% 分位)(39% percentile)
2011-06-20	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+7.6% 历时 25 天25 days	+2.2% 2011-06-24	16% (29% 分位)(29% percentile)	20 (42% 分位)(42% percentile)
2011-04-18	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-14.3% 历时 63 天63 days	-1.9% 2011-04-19	10% (2% 分位)(2% percentile)	17 (26% 分位)(26% percentile)
2011-01-25	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+14.2% 历时 83 天83 days	-3.0% 2011-01-17	22% (56% 分位)(56% percentile)	18 (28% 分位)(28% percentile)
2010-11-08	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-15.3% 历时 78 天78 days	-5.2% 2010-11-12	20% (44% 分位)(44% percentile)	18 (31% 分位)(31% percentile)
2010-07-05	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+33.7% 历时 126 天126 days	-4.3% 2010-06-29	24% (59% 分位)(59% percentile)	—
2010-04-14	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-25.3% 历时 82 天82 days	-4.8% 2010-04-19	14% (19% 分位)(19% percentile)	16 (22% 分位)(22% percentile)
2009-11-23	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-5.2% 历时 142 天142 days	-3.6% 2009-11-26	20% (48% 分位)(48% percentile)	21 (47% 分位)(47% percentile)
2009-08-31	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+25.1% 历时 84 天84 days	-6.7% 2009-08-31	45% (94% 分位)(94% percentile)	26 (74% 分位)(74% percentile)
2009-07-22	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-19.1% 历时 40 天40 days	-5.0% 2009-07-29	19% (45% 分位)(45% percentile)	23 (61% 分位)(61% percentile)
2008-11-04	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+93.2% 历时 260 天260 days	+7.3% 2008-11-10	41% (89% 分位)(89% percentile)	48 (99% 分位)(99% percentile)
2008-01-14	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-69.0% 历时 295 天295 days	-7.2% 2008-01-22	19% (47% 分位)(47% percentile)	23 (64% 分位)(64% percentile)
2007-11-28	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+14.5% 历时 47 天47 days	+4.9% 2007-11-14	32% (86% 分位)(86% percentile)	24 (70% 分位)(70% percentile)
2007-10-16	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-21.2% 历时 43 天43 days	-4.8% 2007-10-25	19% (50% 分位)(50% percentile)	20 (48% 分位)(48% percentile)
2007-07-05	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+68.5% 历时 103 天103 days	-5.2% 2007-07-05	39% (93% 分位)(93% percentile)	15 (28% 分位)(28% percentile)
2007-05-29	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-16.6% 历时 37 天37 days	-8.3% 2007-06-04	23% (69% 分位)(69% percentile)	14 (20% 分位)(20% percentile)
2005-12-05	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+301.7% 历时 540 天540 days	-1.9% 2005-11-22	15% (27% 分位)(27% percentile)	12 (2% 分位)(2% percentile)
2005-09-19	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-11.6% 历时 77 天77 days	-2.4% 2005-09-22	16% (37% 分位)(37% percentile)	12 (3% 分位)(3% percentile)
2005-07-11	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+20.7% 历时 70 天70 days	+3.4% 2005-07-12	21% (65% 分位)(65% percentile)	11 (0% 分位)(0% percentile)
2004-04-06	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-43.1% 历时 461 天461 days	-2.4% 2004-04-09	16% (37% 分位)(37% percentile)	15 (1% 分位)(1% percentile)
2003-11-18	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+35.0% 历时 140 天140 days	+3.1% 2003-11-24	18% (52% 分位)(52% percentile)	19 (10% 分位)(10% percentile)
2003-04-15	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-19.3% 历时 217 天217 days	+3.4% 2003-04-28	16% (38% 分位)(38% percentile)	23 (35% 分位)(35% percentile)
2003-01-03	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+23.6% 历时 102 天102 days	+5.8% 2003-01-14	16% (37% 分位)(37% percentile)	25 (56% 分位)(56% percentile)
2002-07-08	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-23.8% 历时 179 天179 days	+9.3% 2002-06-24	34% (86% 分位)(86% percentile)	28 (83% 分位)(83% percentile)
2002-06-05	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+18.5% 历时 33 天33 days	+4.1% 2002-06-06	21% (63% 分位)(63% percentile)	23 (41% 分位)(41% percentile)
2002-03-21	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-13.2% 历时 76 天76 days	+3.0% 2002-04-04	24% (68% 分位)(68% percentile)	18 (3% 分位)(3% percentile)
2002-01-22	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+24.0% 历时 58 天58 days	+6.8% 2002-01-31	26% (75% 分位)(75% percentile)	24 (49% 分位)(49% percentile)
2001-12-04	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-23.2% 历时 49 天49 days	+1.8% 2001-11-20	21% (63% 分位)(63% percentile)	24 (52% 分位)(52% percentile)
2001-10-22	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+16.4% 历时 43 天43 days	+9.9% 2001-10-23	26% (76% 分位)(76% percentile)	32 (93% 分位)(93% percentile)
2001-06-13	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-32.2% 历时 131 天131 days	-2.0% 2001-06-18	8% (2% 分位)(2% percentile)	21 (25% 分位)(25% percentile)
2000-09-25	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+19.5% 历时 261 天261 days	-2.2% 2000-09-19	19% (48% 分位)(48% percentile)	21 (28% 分位)(28% percentile)
2000-08-21	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-11.0% 历时 35 天35 days	-2.6% 2000-08-31	5% (0% 分位)(0% percentile)	17 (1% 分位)(1% percentile)
1999-12-27	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+56.7% 历时 238 天238 days	-4.2% 2000-01-11	14% (16% 分位)(16% percentile)	23 (44% 分位)(44% percentile)
1999-09-09	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-19.7% 历时 109 天109 days	+6.6% 1999-09-09	29% (76% 分位)(76% percentile)	23 (42% 分位)(42% percentile)
1999-07-19	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+13.3% 历时 52 天52 days	+6.5% 1999-07-20	50% (98% 分位)(98% percentile)	19 (8% 分位)(8% percentile)
1999-06-29	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-15.0% 历时 20 天20 days	-7.6% 1999-07-01	40% (92% 分位)(92% percentile)	23 (34% 分位)(34% percentile)
1999-05-18	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+64.1% 历时 42 天42 days	+4.6% 1999-05-19	26% (80% 分位)(80% percentile)	27 (70% 分位)(70% percentile)
1999-02-08	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	-0.6% 历时 99 天99 days	+2.5% 1999-03-03	14% (17% 分位)(17% percentile)	30 (82% 分位)(82% percentile)
1998-11-16	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-17.6% 历时 84 天84 days	+1.9% 1998-11-09	15% (21% 分位)(21% percentile)	29 (75% 分位)(75% percentile)
1998-08-17	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+20.9% 历时 91 天91 days	-8.4% 1998-08-17	36% (92% 分位)(92% percentile)	32 (95% 分位)(95% percentile)
1998-06-03	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-24.6% 历时 75 天75 days	+2.6% 1998-06-12	12% (4% 分位)(4% percentile)	23 (56% 分位)(56% percentile)
1997-09-23	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+36.3% 历时 253 天253 days	-6.8% 1997-09-22	37%	22
1997-09-10	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-17.0% 历时 13 天13 days	-6.8% 1997-09-22	21%	25
1997-07-07	未定稿Censored→震荡Range	+14.5% 历时 65 天65 days	-5.4% 1997-07-07	—	19

诊断指标Diagnostics

BSS 分桶BSS by bucket	趋势中段（>20 日） +0.249Trend interior (>20 days) +0.249 · 过渡带（6–20 日） +0.074· transition band (6–20 days) +0.074 · 转折邻域（±5 日） -0.177· turning-point window (±5 days) -0.177
Murphy 分解Murphy decomposition	可靠性 REL 0.0166（越小越好）Reliability REL 0.0166 (lower is better) · 分辨力 RES 0.0952（越大越好）· resolution RES 0.0952 (higher is better)
三类平衡准确率Three-class balanced accuracy (BAC³)	0.483 （随机基准 0.333；受趋势中段样本主导，仅作回归监控，不用于选型）(chance = 0.333; dominated by trend-interior samples, tracked as a regression check only, not used for model selection)

恒生指数Hang Seng Index^HSI

不明确Unclear P(上) 36% · P(震) 42% · P(下) 22%P(Up) 36% · P(Range) 42% · P(Down) 22% 标注定稿至 2026-06-26，其后 30 个交易日方向尚未定稿Labels finalized through 2026-06-26; the 30 sessions since have no class yet

近两年窗口内 3 个转折 · 加粗+圆点 = 附近有大幅单日波动3 turning points in the last 2 years · bold line + dot = a large single-day move nearby

上升Uptrend 标注 40% — labeled 40% · 模型 59% · model 59%震荡Range 标注 31% — labeled 31% · 模型 17% · model 17%下降Downtrend 标注 28% — labeled 28% · 模型 24% · model 24%

1990-01-02 → 2026-08-13 · 102 个转折点 · 2.79 段/年102 turning points · 2.79 segments/yr PT趋势腿 ≥19.6% · 候选腿 ≥25 根 · 枢轴间隔 ≥9 根PT trend leg ≥19.6% · candidate ≥25 bars · pivot gap ≥9 bars BSS 0.161 转折邻域 -0.066Turning-point window -0.066

全部 102 个转折点All 102 turning points

转折日Date	切换Switch	接下来这一段Next segment	附近最大单日Largest nearby day	当时波动Volatility then	VIX
2025-10-02	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-16.9% 历时 267 天267 days	-2.5% 2025-10-17	17% (42% 分位)(42% percentile)	17 (44% 分位)(44% percentile)
2025-01-13	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+44.6% 历时 262 天262 days	-2.2% 2025-01-02	15% (30% 分位)(30% percentile)	19 (58% 分位)(58% percentile)
2024-10-07	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-18.3% 历时 98 天98 days	-9.4% 2024-10-08	31% (85% 分位)(85% percentile)	23 (74% 分位)(74% percentile)
2024-08-06	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+38.8% 历时 62 天62 days	-2.1% 2024-08-02	22% (67% 分位)(67% percentile)	28 (88% 分位)(88% percentile)
2024-05-20	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-15.2% 历时 78 天78 days	+2.3% 2024-05-10	17% (41% 分位)(41% percentile)	12 (11% 分位)(11% percentile)
2024-01-22	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+31.2% 历时 119 天119 days	-3.7% 2024-01-17	23% (69% 分位)(69% percentile)	13 (20% 分位)(20% percentile)
2023-07-31	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-25.5% 历时 175 天175 days	+4.1% 2023-07-25	27% (78% 分位)(78% percentile)	14 (23% 分位)(23% percentile)
2023-06-01	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+10.2% 历时 60 天60 days	+4.0% 2023-06-02	20% (58% 分位)(58% percentile)	16 (36% 分位)(36% percentile)
2023-01-27	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-19.7% 历时 125 天125 days	-2.7% 2023-01-30	17% (46% 分位)(46% percentile)	19 (53% 分位)(53% percentile)
2022-10-31	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+54.5% 历时 88 天88 days	+7.7% 2022-11-11	39% (93% 分位)(93% percentile)	26 (84% 分位)(84% percentile)
2022-06-28	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-34.5% 历时 125 天125 days	-2.8% 2022-07-11	27% (78% 分位)(78% percentile)	28 (89% 分位)(89% percentile)
2022-04-04	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-0.4% 历时 85 天85 days	+3.1% 2022-03-22	53% (98% 分位)(98% percentile)	19 (55% 分位)(55% percentile)
2022-03-15	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+22.2% 历时 20 天20 days	+9.1% 2022-03-16	32% (87% 分位)(87% percentile)	30 (91% 分位)(91% percentile)
2021-02-17	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-40.8% 历时 391 天391 days	-3.6% 2021-02-26	24% (73% 分位)(73% percentile)	22 (69% 分位)(69% percentile)
2020-07-06	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	+18.0% 历时 226 天226 days	+3.8% 2020-07-06	24% (74% 分位)(74% percentile)	28 (89% 分位)(89% percentile)
2020-03-23	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+21.4% 历时 105 天105 days	-4.9% 2020-03-23	40% (93% 分位)(93% percentile)	62 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
2020-01-17	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-25.3% 历时 66 天66 days	-2.8% 2020-01-29	11% (8% 分位)(8% percentile)	12 (12% 分位)(12% percentile)
2019-04-09	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-3.7% 历时 283 天283 days	-2.0% 2019-03-25	14% (24% 分位)(24% percentile)	14 (30% 分位)(30% percentile)
2018-10-30	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+22.7% 历时 161 天161 days	+4.2% 2018-11-02	23% (70% 分位)(70% percentile)	23 (77% 分位)(77% percentile)
2018-05-14	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-22.1% 历时 169 天169 days	-1.8% 2018-05-23	17% (48% 分位)(48% percentile)	13 (19% 分位)(19% percentile)
2018-01-26	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-4.9% 历时 108 天108 days	-5.1% 2018-02-06	11% (10% 分位)(10% percentile)	11 (4% 分位)(4% percentile)
2017-09-28	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+20.9% 历时 120 天120 days	+2.2% 2017-10-03	10% (4% 分位)(4% percentile)	10 (0% 分位)(0% percentile)
2017-08-30	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-2.4% 历时 29 天29 days	+1.2% 2017-08-25	14% (23% 分位)(23% percentile)	11 (4% 分位)(4% percentile)
2016-12-23	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+30.2% 历时 250 天250 days	-1.8% 2016-12-15	11% (7% 分位)(7% percentile)	11 (4% 分位)(4% percentile)
2016-09-09	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-10.5% 历时 105 天105 days	-3.4% 2016-09-12	10% (3% 分位)(3% percentile)	18 (48% 分位)(48% percentile)
2016-02-12	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+31.6% 历时 210 天210 days	-3.8% 2016-02-11	31% (83% 分位)(83% percentile)	25 (82% 分位)(82% percentile)
2015-04-28	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-35.6% 历时 290 天290 days	+2.8% 2015-04-21	23% (66% 分位)(66% percentile)	12 (12% 分位)(12% percentile)
2015-03-11	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+19.9% 历时 48 天48 days	+1.4% 2015-03-19	9% (2% 分位)(2% percentile)	17 (43% 分位)(43% percentile)
2013-06-24	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+19.7% 历时 625 天625 days	-2.9% 2013-06-20	17% (41% 分位)(41% percentile)	20 (58% 分位)(58% percentile)
2013-01-30	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-16.8% 历时 145 天145 days	-2.3% 2013-02-05	7% (0% 分位)(0% percentile)	14 (23% 分位)(23% percentile)
2012-06-04	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+31.0% 历时 240 天240 days	+2.4% 2012-06-11	17% (40% 分位)(40% percentile)	26 (82% 分位)(82% percentile)
2012-02-29	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-16.1% 历时 96 天96 days	-2.2% 2012-03-06	14% (25% 分位)(25% percentile)	18 (47% 分位)(47% percentile)
2011-10-04	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+33.4% 历时 148 天148 days	+5.7% 2011-10-06	36% (88% 分位)(88% percentile)	41 (97% 分位)(97% percentile)
2011-07-04	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-28.6% 历时 92 天92 days	-3.1% 2011-07-12	16% (34% 分位)(34% percentile)	—
2010-11-08	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-8.8% 历时 238 天238 days	+2.4% 2010-11-01	18% (44% 分位)(44% percentile)	18 (47% 分位)(47% percentile)
2010-05-25	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+31.5% 历时 167 天167 days	-3.5% 2010-05-25	23% (63% 分位)(63% percentile)	35 (95% 分位)(95% percentile)
2009-11-16	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-17.3% 历时 190 天190 days	-4.8% 2009-11-27	23% (63% 分位)(63% percentile)	23 (71% 分位)(71% percentile)
2009-07-13	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+33.0% 历时 126 天126 days	+3.7% 2009-07-20	23% (61% 分位)(61% percentile)	26 (83% 分位)(83% percentile)
2009-06-12	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-8.7% 历时 31 天31 days	+4.0% 2009-06-10	33% (82% 分位)(82% percentile)	28 (87% 分位)(87% percentile)
2009-03-09	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+66.5% 历时 95 天95 days	-4.8% 2009-03-09	37% (88% 分位)(88% percentile)	50 (99% 分位)(99% percentile)
2008-12-11	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-27.3% 历时 88 天88 days	+8.7% 2008-12-08	53% (97% 分位)(97% percentile)	56 (99% 分位)(99% percentile)
2008-10-27	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+41.7% 历时 45 天45 days	-12.7% 2008-10-27	85% (100% 分位)(100% percentile)	80 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
2008-05-06	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-58.1% 历时 174 天174 days	-2.5% 2008-05-07	22% (62% 分位)(62% percentile)	18 (51% 分位)(51% percentile)
2008-03-17	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+24.6% 历时 50 天50 days	+6.4% 2008-03-25	37% (90% 分位)(90% percentile)	32 (96% 分位)(96% percentile)
2007-10-30	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-33.4% 历时 139 天139 days	-5.0% 2007-11-05	34% (89% 分位)(89% percentile)	21 (68% 分位)(68% percentile)
2007-03-05	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+69.5% 历时 239 天239 days	-4.0% 2007-03-05	22% (64% 分位)(64% percentile)	20 (60% 分位)(60% percentile)
2007-01-24	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-10.4% 历时 40 天40 days	+2.3% 2007-01-15	19% (54% 分位)(54% percentile)	10 (0% 分位)(0% percentile)
2006-06-13	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+36.7% 历时 225 天225 days	+2.6% 2006-06-16	22% (62% 分位)(62% percentile)	24 (78% 分位)(78% percentile)
2006-05-08	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-11.9% 历时 36 天36 days	-3.1% 2006-05-22	14% (23% 分位)(23% percentile)	12 (9% 分位)(9% percentile)
2005-10-28	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+21.7% 历时 192 天192 days	-1.5% 2005-10-19	14% (22% 分位)(22% percentile)	14 (24% 分位)(24% percentile)
2004-12-29	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-0.4% 历时 303 天303 days	-2.0% 2005-01-05	11% (3% 分位)(3% percentile)	12 (4% 分位)(4% percentile)
2004-05-17	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+30.1% 历时 226 天226 days	-3.6% 2004-05-10	20% (51% 分位)(51% percentile)	20 (54% 分位)(54% percentile)
2004-02-18	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-21.3% 历时 89 天89 days	+2.1% 2004-02-06	19% (47% 分位)(47% percentile)	16 (27% 分位)(27% percentile)
2003-04-25	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+65.6% 历时 299 天299 days	+3.7% 2003-04-29	20% (45% 分位)(45% percentile)	21 (58% 分位)(58% percentile)
2002-12-03	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-17.8% 历时 143 天143 days	-2.3% 2002-12-04	15% (23% 分位)(23% percentile)	28 (89% 分位)(89% percentile)
2002-10-10	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+15.4% 历时 54 天54 days	+4.1% 2002-10-15	20% (47% 分位)(47% percentile)	38 (98% 分位)(98% percentile)
2002-05-17	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-26.0% 历时 146 天146 days	-1.8% 2002-05-21	14% (18% 分位)(18% percentile)	18 (44% 分位)(44% percentile)
2001-09-21	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+34.0% 历时 238 天238 days	-8.9% 2001-09-12	42% (93% 分位)(93% percentile)	43 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
2001-05-22	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-35.6% 历时 122 天122 days	-2.8% 2001-05-14	23% (56% 分位)(56% percentile)	21 (68% 分位)(68% percentile)
2001-04-04	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+15.0% 历时 48 天48 days	+4.4% 2001-04-19	28% (70% 分位)(70% percentile)	34 (98% 分位)(98% percentile)
2001-02-01	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-25.4% 历时 62 天62 days	+2.6% 2001-01-19	25% (63% 分位)(63% percentile)	22 (71% 分位)(71% percentile)
2000-11-30	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+15.6% 历时 63 天63 days	+3.6% 2000-12-06	26% (66% 分位)(66% percentile)	30 (95% 分位)(95% percentile)
2000-07-21	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-22.0% 历时 132 天132 days	+2.4% 2000-07-10	18% (42% 分位)(42% percentile)	19 (57% 分位)(57% percentile)
2000-05-26	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+30.6% 历时 56 天56 days	+5.2% 2000-05-31	31% (78% 分位)(78% percentile)	24 (85% 分位)(85% percentile)
2000-03-28	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-25.0% 历时 59 天59 days	+4.4% 2000-03-17	31% (80% 分位)(80% percentile)	25 (87% 分位)(87% percentile)
1999-10-19	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+50.8% 历时 161 天161 days	+3.9% 1999-10-29	17% (38% 分位)(38% percentile)	27 (90% 分位)(90% percentile)
1999-07-05	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-16.4% 历时 106 天106 days	+4.8% 1999-07-02	28% (73% 分位)(73% percentile)	—
1999-05-28	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+20.3% 历时 38 天38 days	+3.4% 1999-06-07	23% (63% 分位)(63% percentile)	25 (88% 分位)(88% percentile)
1999-05-05	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-11.2% 历时 23 天23 days	-4.2% 1999-05-07	26% (69% 分位)(69% percentile)	25 (89% 分位)(89% percentile)
1999-02-10	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+49.7% 历时 84 天84 days	-3.7% 1999-01-28	28% (73% 分位)(73% percentile)	30 (96% 分位)(96% percentile)
1998-11-24	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-16.4% 历时 78 天78 days	+4.7% 1998-12-07	32% (81% 分位)(81% percentile)	23 (87% 分位)(87% percentile)
1998-08-13	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+62.9% 历时 103 天103 days	+8.5% 1998-08-14	30% (81% 分位)(81% percentile)	30 (98% 分位)(98% percentile)
1998-03-25	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-43.6% 历时 141 天141 days	+2.9% 1998-03-19	29% (81% 分位)(81% percentile)	23 (88% 分位)(88% percentile)
1998-01-12	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+45.4% 历时 72 天72 days	-8.7% 1998-01-12	50% (98% 分位)(98% percentile)	28 (96% 分位)(96% percentile)
1997-12-08	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-30.7% 历时 35 天35 days	-5.5% 1997-12-11	37% (92% 分位)(92% percentile)	23 (91% 分位)(91% percentile)
1997-10-28	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+29.4% 历时 41 天41 days	+18.8% 1997-10-29	75% (100% 分位)(100% percentile)	31 (99% 分位)(99% percentile)
1997-08-07	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-45.7% 历时 82 天82 days	-3.8% 1997-08-19	16% (44% 分位)(44% percentile)	20 (82% 分位)(82% percentile)
1997-04-03	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+38.3% 历时 126 天126 days	-3.7% 1997-04-01	19% (62% 分位)(62% percentile)	21 (90% 分位)(90% percentile)
1997-01-20	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-13.1% 历时 73 天73 days	+3.6% 1997-01-15	19% (62% 分位)(62% percentile)	19 (81% 分位)(81% percentile)
1996-07-30	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+31.0% 历时 174 天174 days	-1.6% 1996-07-16	15% (34% 分位)(34% percentile)	21 (87% 分位)(87% percentile)
1996-02-16	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-8.7% 历时 165 天165 days	-2.2% 1996-02-22	13% (17% 分位)(17% percentile)	15 (56% 分位)(56% percentile)
1995-11-17	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+24.8% 历时 91 天91 days	+2.0% 1995-11-30	12% (12% 分位)(12% percentile)	12 (23% 分位)(23% percentile)
1995-07-13	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-4.7% 历时 127 天127 days	+2.7% 1995-07-07	16% (34% 分位)(34% percentile)	13 (24% 分位)(24% percentile)
1995-01-23	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+39.8% 历时 171 天171 days	+5.6% 1995-02-06	31% (86% 分位)(86% percentile)	13 (21% 分位)(21% percentile)
1994-09-07	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-31.5% 历时 138 天138 days	+3.1% 1994-08-30	21% (64% 分位)(64% percentile)	12 (10% 分位)(10% percentile)
1994-07-11	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+21.1% 历时 58 天58 days	+3.5% 1994-07-15	17% (47% 分位)(47% percentile)	14 (30% 分位)(30% percentile)
1994-05-04	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+0.3% 历时 68 天68 days	+4.8% 1994-05-18	29% (83% 分位)(83% percentile)	14 (33% 分位)(33% percentile)
1994-01-04	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-31.4% 历时 120 天120 days	-6.4% 1994-01-06	30% (91% 分位)(91% percentile)	12 (8% 分位)(8% percentile)
1993-07-23	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+80.7% 历时 165 天165 days	+2.6% 1993-08-03	14% (31% 分位)(31% percentile)	11 (1% 分位)(1% percentile)
1993-05-27	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-9.4% 历时 57 天57 days	-2.3% 1993-06-03	17% (53% 分位)(53% percentile)	13 (10% 分位)(10% percentile)
1992-12-03	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+49.6% 历时 175 天175 days	-8.0% 1992-12-03	40% (99% 分位)(99% percentile)	12 (0% 分位)(0% percentile)
1992-11-12	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-22.8% 历时 21 天21 days	-3.9% 1992-11-18	23% (87% 分位)(87% percentile)	14 (9% 分位)(9% percentile)
1992-08-25	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+21.8% 历时 79 天79 days	+3.5% 1992-08-26	18% (68% 分位)(68% percentile)	16 (17% 分位)(17% percentile)
1992-07-16	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-14.1% 历时 40 天40 days	-2.4% 1992-07-24	16% (60% 分位)(60% percentile)	12 (0% 分位)(0% percentile)
1992-04-09	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+30.3% 历时 98 天98 days	+4.1% 1992-04-10	12% (29% 分位)(29% percentile)	18 (43% 分位)(43% percentile)
1992-03-05	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-4.7% 历时 35 天35 days	+2.1% 1992-02-27	13% (38% 分位)(38% percentile)	18 (47% 分位)(47% percentile)
1991-06-21	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+39.3% 历时 258 天258 days	+1.9% 1991-07-01	17% (62% 分位)(62% percentile)	17 (11% 分位)(11% percentile)
1991-05-20	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-9.0% 历时 32 天32 days	-3.5% 1991-05-27	13% (37% 分位)(37% percentile)	17 (14% 分位)(14% percentile)
1991-01-16	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+31.3% 历时 124 天124 days	+3.5% 1991-01-17	13% (44% 分位)(44% percentile)	33 (97% 分位)(97% percentile)
1990-09-28	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+8.1% 历时 110 天110 days	+4.1% 1990-10-02	14% (60% 分位)(60% percentile)	29 (91% 分位)(91% percentile)
1990-07-23	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-22.5% 历时 67 天67 days	-7.4% 1990-08-06	11% (22% 分位)(22% percentile)	24 (83% 分位)(83% percentile)
1990-02-02	未定稿Censored→上升Uptrend	+30.1% 历时 171 天171 days	+2.1% 1990-02-08	11%	24

诊断指标Diagnostics

BSS 分桶BSS by bucket	趋势中段（>20 日） +0.216Trend interior (>20 days) +0.216 · 过渡带（6–20 日） +0.126· transition band (6–20 days) +0.126 · 转折邻域（±5 日） -0.066· turning-point window (±5 days) -0.066
Murphy 分解Murphy decomposition	可靠性 REL 0.0132（越小越好）Reliability REL 0.0132 (lower is better) · 分辨力 RES 0.0988（越大越好）· resolution RES 0.0988 (higher is better)
三类平衡准确率Three-class balanced accuracy (BAC³)	0.490 （随机基准 0.333；受趋势中段样本主导，仅作回归监控，不用于选型）(chance = 0.333; dominated by trend-interior samples, tracked as a regression check only, not used for model selection)

比特币BitcoinBTC-USD

不明确Unclear P(上) 25% · P(震) 36% · P(下) 39%P(Up) 25% · P(Range) 36% · P(Down) 39% 标注定稿至 2026-06-28，其后 47 个交易日方向尚未定稿Labels finalized through 2026-06-28; the 47 sessions since have no class yet

近两年窗口内 4 个转折 · 加粗+圆点 = 附近有大幅单日波动4 turning points in the last 2 years · bold line + dot = a large single-day move nearby

上升Uptrend 标注 41% — labeled 41% · 模型 65% · model 65%震荡Range 标注 36% — labeled 36% · 模型 6% · model 6%下降Downtrend 标注 23% — labeled 23% · 模型 28% · model 28%

2014-09-17 → 2026-08-14 · 33 个转折点 · 2.77 段/年33 turning points · 2.77 segments/yr PT趋势腿 ≥47.4% · 候选腿 ≥37 根 · 枢轴间隔 ≥13 根PT trend leg ≥47.4% · candidate ≥37 bars · pivot gap ≥13 bars BSS 0.092 转折邻域 -0.071Turning-point window -0.071

全部 33 个转折点All 33 turning points

转折日Date	切换Switch	接下来这一段Next segment	附近最大单日Largest nearby day	当时波动Volatility then	VIX
2026-02-05	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	-5.1% 历时 143 天143 days	-14.1% 2026-02-05	75% (76% 分位)(76% percentile)	22 (78% 分位)(78% percentile)
2026-01-14	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-35.3% 历时 22 天22 days	-4.6% 2026-01-20	28% (10% 分位)(10% percentile)	17 (53% 分位)(53% percentile)
2025-01-21	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-8.7% 历时 358 天358 days	+4.7% 2025-01-17	50% (38% 分位)(38% percentile)	15 (41% 分位)(41% percentile)
2024-09-06	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+96.8% 历时 137 天137 days	-5.4% 2024-08-27	52% (42% 分位)(42% percentile)	22 (79% 分位)(79% percentile)
2024-03-13	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-26.2% 历时 177 天177 days	+9.7% 2024-03-20	68% (65% 分位)(65% percentile)	14 (30% 分位)(30% percentile)
2023-09-11	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+190.4% 历时 184 天184 days	+2.7% 2023-09-12	40% (24% 分位)(24% percentile)	14 (30% 分位)(30% percentile)
2023-04-14	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-17.5% 历时 150 天150 days	-5.2% 2023-04-19	34% (15% 分位)(15% percentile)	17 (52% 分位)(52% percentile)
2022-11-21	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+93.1% 历时 144 天144 days	+4.4% 2022-11-30	97% (85% 分位)(85% percentile)	22 (76% 分位)(76% percentile)
2022-06-18	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	-17.0% 历时 156 天156 days	-16.0% 2022-06-13	104% (89% 分位)(89% percentile)	—
2022-03-29	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-59.9% 历时 81 天81 days	-5.2% 2022-04-06	52% (35% 分位)(35% percentile)	19 (68% 分位)(68% percentile)
2022-01-22	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+35.5% 历时 66 天66 days	-10.4% 2022-01-21	58% (46% 分位)(46% percentile)	—
2021-11-08	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-48.2% 历时 75 天75 days	+6.7% 2021-11-08	59% (47% 分位)(47% percentile)	17 (63% 分位)(63% percentile)
2021-07-20	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+126.7% 历时 111 天111 days	+7.7% 2021-07-21	45% (29% 分位)(29% percentile)	20 (73% 分位)(73% percentile)
2021-04-13	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-53.1% 历时 98 天98 days	-7.4% 2021-04-18	50% (36% 分位)(36% percentile)	17 (61% 分位)(61% percentile)
2020-03-12	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+1177.5% 历时 397 天397 days	-37.2% 2020-03-12	202% (100% 分位)(100% percentile)	75 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
2020-02-12	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-51.9% 历时 29 天29 days	-5.0% 2020-02-19	40% (26% 分位)(26% percentile)	14 (46% 分位)(46% percentile)
2019-12-17	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+55.5% 历时 57 天57 days	+9.6% 2019-12-18	37% (24% 分位)(24% percentile)	12 (26% 分位)(26% percentile)
2019-06-26	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-49.0% 历时 174 天174 days	-14.1% 2019-06-27	62% (54% 分位)(54% percentile)	16 (71% 分位)(71% percentile)
2018-12-15	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+302.1% 历时 193 天193 days	+10.4% 2018-12-20	86% (74% 分位)(74% percentile)	—
2018-07-24	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-61.6% 历时 144 天144 days	+9.2% 2018-07-24	67% (57% 分位)(57% percentile)	12 (33% 分位)(33% percentile)
2018-06-28	下降Downtrend→震荡Range	+42.7% 历时 26 天26 days	-9.6% 2018-06-22	76% (65% 分位)(65% percentile)	17 (77% 分位)(77% percentile)
2017-12-16	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-69.7% 历时 194 天194 days	+25.2% 2017-12-07	144% (98% 分位)(98% percentile)	—
2017-09-14	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+518.0% 历时 93 天93 days	-18.7% 2017-09-14	114% (95% 分位)(95% percentile)	10 (6% 分位)(6% percentile)
2017-09-01	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-35.5% 历时 13 天13 days	-8.1% 2017-09-08	56% (59% 分位)(59% percentile)	10 (4% 分位)(4% percentile)
2016-08-02	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+793.6% 历时 395 天395 days	-9.7% 2016-08-02	52% (50% 分位)(50% percentile)	13 (20% 分位)(20% percentile)
2016-06-16	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-28.6% 历时 47 天47 days	-10.6% 2016-06-22	78% (79% 分位)(79% percentile)	19 (76% 分位)(76% percentile)
2016-05-19	震荡Range→上升Uptrend	+74.7% 历时 28 天28 days	+11.9% 2016-05-28	25% (13% 分位)(13% percentile)	16 (60% 分位)(60% percentile)
2016-04-26	上升Uptrend→震荡Range	-5.9% 历时 23 天23 days	-4.6% 2016-04-27	16% (3% 分位)(3% percentile)	14 (28% 分位)(28% percentile)
2015-08-24	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+121.4% 历时 246 天246 days	-18.2% 2015-08-18	103% (93% 分位)(93% percentile)	41 (100% 分位)(100% percentile)
2015-07-12	上升Uptrend→下降Downtrend	-32.3% 历时 43 天43 days	-6.1% 2015-07-13	46% (34% 分位)(34% percentile)	—
2015-01-14	下降Downtrend→上升Uptrend	+74.5% 历时 179 天179 days	-21.1% 2015-01-14	138% (100% 分位)(100% percentile)	21 (93% 分位)(93% percentile)
2014-11-12	震荡Range→下降Downtrend	-58.0% 历时 63 天63 days	+15.2% 2014-11-12	78%	13
2014-09-17	未定稿Censored→震荡Range	-7.4% 历时 56 天56 days	+8.4% 2014-09-23	—	13

诊断指标Diagnostics

BSS 分桶BSS by bucket	趋势中段（>20 日） +0.125Trend interior (>20 days) +0.125 · 过渡带（6–20 日） +0.040· transition band (6–20 days) +0.040 · 转折邻域（±5 日） -0.071· turning-point window (±5 days) -0.071
Murphy 分解Murphy decomposition	可靠性 REL 0.0866（越小越好）Reliability REL 0.0866 (lower is better) · 分辨力 RES 0.0690（越大越好）· resolution RES 0.0690 (higher is better)
三类平衡准确率Three-class balanced accuracy (BAC³)	0.405 （随机基准 0.333；受趋势中段样本主导，仅作回归监控，不用于选型）(chance = 0.333; dominated by trend-interior samples, tracked as a regression check only, not used for model selection)

§2　识别准确度与概率校准§2 Identification accuracy and probability calibration

采用 Brier 技能分（Brier Skill Score, BSS）——概率预报检验的标准指标。Scoring uses the Brier Skill Score (BSS) — the standard metric for probabilistic forecast verification. 参照基准为气候基准，即按各类别的历史占比报概率。The reference is the climatological baseline — forecasting each class at its historical base rate. 1 = 完美，0 = 与基准相同，负值 = 劣于基准。1 = perfect, 0 = no better than the baseline, negative = worse than the baseline. 区间估计用配对块自助（block bootstrap，60 交易日为块，重抽 1000 次），Intervals come from a paired block bootstrap (60-trading-day blocks, 1000 resamples), 90% 区间整体位于 0 的一侧方判定为显著。and a result counts as significant only when the entire 90% interval sits on one side of 0.

标的Ticker	BSS（全段）BSS (all days)	90% 区间90% interval	转折邻域Turning-point window	趋势中段Trend interior
标普500 ETFS&P 500 ETF SPY	+0.187	✓ 显著✓ significant	-0.049	+0.265
纳斯达克100 ETFNasdaq-100 ETF QQQ	+0.230	✓ 显著✓ significant	-0.131	+0.427
罗素2000 ETFRussell 2000 ETF IWM	+0.154	✓ 显著✓ significant	-0.110	+0.251
20年期美债 ETF20+ Year Treasury ETF TLT	+0.157	✓ 显著✓ significant	-0.125	+0.279
A股上证指数Shanghai Composite (China A-shares) 000001.SS	+0.147	✓ 显著✓ significant	-0.177	+0.249
恒生指数Hang Seng Index ^HSI	+0.161	✓ 显著✓ significant	-0.066	+0.216
比特币Bitcoin BTC-USD	+0.092	✓ 显著✓ significant	-0.071	+0.125

趋势中段 BSS 为 +0.13 ~ +0.43；转折邻域 7/7 个标的为负，Trend-interior BSS runs +0.13 to +0.43; in the turning-point window 7/7 tickers are negative, 即该区间的概率输出劣于气候基准。i.e. the probabilities there are worse than the climatological baseline.标注使用完整价格路径，模型仅使用历史信息，The labels use the complete price path while the model sees only history; 两者的信息差集中于转折点邻域。the information gap between the two concentrates around turning points.

可靠性曲线（reliability diagram）。横轴为模型给出的 P(上升)，Reliability diagram. The x-axis is the model's P(Uptrend), 纵轴为对应日期中实际为上升的比例。the y-axis the share of those days that were in fact uptrends.
17%–92% 区间贴合对角线（9 个分箱偏离均 ≤ 0.04）；Across 17%–92% the curve tracks the diagonal (9 bins, all deviations ≤ 0.04); 最低分箱预测 7%、实际 10%，模型在这一端系统性低估上涨概率。the lowest bin forecasts 7% against 10% realized — the model systematically understates upside probability at that end.
7 标的合并 · 点越大表示样本越多Pooled across 7 tickers · larger dots carry more days

§3　适用范围与限制§3 Scope and limitations

适用Applicable

· 状态描述与事后归因。趋势成型后的识别有技能：Describing states and attributing after the fact. Identification has skill once a trend has formed: 7/7 个标的 BSS 为正，7/7 的 90% 区间排除 0。BSS is positive for 7/7 tickers, and 7/7 have a 90% interval excluding 0.

· 中高概率区间的相对比较。P(上升) 在 17%–92% 的 9 个分箱上，合并后的偏离 ≤ 0.04；但逐标的最大偏离可达 0.25，单个标的上不要按 ±0.04 用。Relative comparison in the mid-to-high probability range. Across the 9 bins where P(Uptrend) falls between 17% and 92%, the pooled deviation stays within 0.04 — but per ticker it reaches 0.25, so do not read ±0.04 onto a single ticker.

· 作为其它研究的状态标签。标注规则明确、可复现。As state labels for other research. The labeling rule is explicit and reproducible.

不适用Not applicable

· 转折点预测。转折邻域BSS 7/7个标的为负，没有正值例外（见§2）。Turn prediction. Turn-neighbourhood BSS is negative for 7/7 tickers, and there is no positive exception (see §2).

· 择时超额收益的来源。A source of market-timing excess return.接为交易信号后，在本项目的经济轴复算中未跑赢各自最优的单行基线（买入持有 / 200 日均线 / 反波动率）。Wired up as a trading signal, it did not beat each ticker's best one-line baseline in this project's economic-axis recomputation (buy-and-hold / 200-day moving average / inverse volatility).

· 低概率端的仓位决策。P(上升) 最低的分箱预测 7%、Sizing decisions at the low-probability end. The lowest P(Uptrend) bin forecasts 7% against 实际 10%，模型在这一端系统性低估上涨概率；据此减仓会减过头。10% realized; the model systematically understates upside probability there, so cutting exposure on it cuts too far.

· 通用仓位器。按波动率倒数配仓在美股与加密上表现更优。A general-purpose position sizer. Inverse-volatility sizing does better on both US equities and crypto.

· 未通过退化门的标的。预注册门（任一类召回 <5%）在 4/7 个标的上未通过（QQQ、IWM、TLT、000001.SS），那些标的的该类概率不可用 —— BSS 为正不代表三个类都认得出来。The flagged class on tickers that failed the degeneracy gate. The pre-registered gate (any class with recall <5%) fails on 4/7 tickers (QQQ, IWM, TLT, 000001.SS); that class's probabilities are unusable there — a positive BSS does not mean all three classes are recognisable.

上限的量级：把真值标签整体延迟 k 根 bar 再打分——k=20 还有 BSS +0.34，k=40 已经是 -0.18，逐标的过零点落在 24–72 根之间。因果件拿不到任何提前量，这条曲线就是它的天花板。The size of the ceiling: delay the ground-truth labels by k bars and rescore — at k=20 the skill is still +0.34, at k=40 it is -0.18, and the per-ticker zero crossing falls between 24 and 72 bars. A causal model gets no head start at all, so this curve is its ceiling.

精准标识趋势与震荡State Identification: Trends and Ranges

§1 标的与历史标注§1 Tickers and historical labels

§2 识别准确度与概率校准§2 Identification accuracy and probability calibration

§3 适用范围与限制§3 Scope and limitations

§1　标的与历史标注§1 Tickers and historical labels

§2　识别准确度与概率校准§2 Identification accuracy and probability calibration

§3　适用范围与限制§3 Scope and limitations